RE:RE:RE:10%480Mayham wrote: Would you honestly suggest that a long holder sell now after it has dropped as much as it did. To clearify, I'm talking about a retail investor who works full time and can not dedicate the time to watching this many hours a day. I'm very curious what your answer will be. I think its safe to say everyone knows what my answer is.
Mayham
Mayham - I assume this is the question you are referring to? Also - given your many blocked individuals (and i get why you did it) but you are falling for one of the fallacies I lined out. You can block opposing views but you will incorrectly block some that will limit your ability to find potentially valuable information.
But to your question... If $40 breaks I would 100% sell my position... Here is the funny thing.. every bull think this is going to $70 or $100 or whatever.. They also seem willing to lose half their money and still be loyal to the stock.
Look at when Constellation came in to buy - sure on the announcement you may have missed the $32 to $39 move but if you are really playing for that big of a return then who cares if you miss the first 10%? But if you continue to wait for an announcement that may never come you are risking massive potential losses. Hell, move to a half position if you really want to but why would you be fully loaded waiting for the necessary catalyst?
What happens if this returns to $10 (not saying thats my base case but lets just say for argument sake) and then the announcement comes and this rips to $40 and stalls out. Thats a 300% return but only for the person who bought at $10... everyone else holding from here forward had their thesis play out but from a lower base that makes their investment irrelevant.