OptGreen wrote: Everything is relevent to the maretplace and market condition...there is little 'normal' or positive about the NA economy as Biden and handlers, for the most part, have it turned it upside down now and have no clue on how to handle the situation, let alone fix it or guide it in anyway, in this 'new world'....and never will, it is beyond their capacity now.
Constellation has had their eye on the ball from the jump and invested in Tweed/ Canopy, the new legalized cannabis sales and production platform, that was a long way off stateside at the time. They appear to have been fully aware of the situation then and remain of the same mind, again right on track. If it wasn't for the Biden mess all round, Canopy and the industry would have been much further down the road by now.
The Biden mess has worsened the situation with tons of BM weed coming through the cartels, their new partners along with China and fentanyl, in the overthrow of the US...of which appears to be just another wet dream but with close to the opposite of what they were expecting.
Now the legal bud industry is more of a life line than anything...with the fentayl explosion, and much of it fed to the population via BM bud, the legal system inplace here in Canada is the product and system of production to shelf that can be managed and controlled to offset the BM bud while maintaining the quality and SAFETY of the product consumed by the public and generate handsome returns in the treasury for the country.
There appears to be much more clarity for more folks all the time as they reject the cartels, fentanyl and state control...the legal industry here is still in it's infancy in many, if not most ways, like Canopy is still right sizing in all areas of the industry. Canopy is far from behind stateside, as there is plenty of transition yet to be made and Klein and team are on the ground running now and will be for ayear or three yet. The growth and mistakes so far in Canada's progress will just speed up the progress of the industry in the US...along with the reestablishment of democracy and the rule of law, post Biden.
Then there is the off shore markets to address...this industry is far from off the ground, let alone completion. JMHO...Opt
Oldweed wrote: So I agree that CGC is oversold and renegotiating the Acg deal was needed. I also agree Constellation is an established well run company. Is it possible they payed to much up front..yes, nobody is perfect. Would recovering that initial investment by loaning money to CGC for pennies a share pave the way to full ownership at a fraction of the original projected cost...yes it would. Is this a decision a savvy board would take...likely. I would compare this situation to exactly that of Hexo and Tlry. Tlry is making money on the way down on loan interest and by converting debt into cheap hexo shares. Currently Tlry now owns 48% of Hexo assests....sound familiar? Acg share value is tied to CGC so getting more shares of CGC cheap = more shares of Acg cheap, so again saving money and recovering some more of that initial investment and buying time until full legalization. Noone knows how full legalization will look for mult state commerce and there in lies the greatest risk for MSOs, ensuring share price of Acg stays low not only saves money, by buying time it allows for an exit strategy if required and legalization does not work out as planned. Constellation were to quick to pull the trigger in Canada, they will not make the same mistake twice, if I were a betting man everything they are doing now is mitigation on the initial investment and patience for the rules to be rolled out before they pull the trigger on Acg, if Acg were to get distressed I'm sure a loan can be arranged and eventual cheap share swap for notes down the road....sound familiar again?