the boom and boom business
According to pg 36 of Louisiana Pacific's Feb presentation:
"OSB no longer a boom and bust business"
Agreed - now looks like a "boom and boom" business.
According to Madison's website - even "the most veteran industry players can’t believe" (the price levels)
It shouldn't really be too surprising. Commodities either trade based on cost of production (oversupply situation), or are rationed according to value to end user (excess demand). OPEC figured this out in the 70s. Only price will ration demand so that the highest margin homes will be built with it. Clearly this inflection point has been far surpassed with lumber, which is why it unlikely the price will be going back down any time soon in the absense of new mills, which take time to bring online.
Lumber prices also arn't up as much when normalized to home price inflation.