Post by
retiredcf on Feb 09, 2022 9:16am
CIBC Notes
EQUITY RESEARCH
February 9, 2022 Industry Update
Lumber Markets Tightening Again
Mid-week Update
Key Points
Mid-week Wood Product Prices Generally Higher: Random Lengths’ mid-
week prices (published Tuesday evening) showed upward momentum
across most product categories. On the lumber side, W. SPF prices rose by 4.2% or $50 since last Friday to $1,230/mfbm (+26% Y/Y), while SYP 2x4 prices fell 2.8% or $40 to $1,400/mfbm. The Random Lengths Lumber
Composite increased 1% since Friday to $1,189. The trade magazine pointed to improved sentiment in the market as logistics/transportation challenges continued to limit product availability. In SPF, cash prices rose on successive daily expanded-limit gains in futures as mills replenished order files. In SYP, several producers quoted near or above last week’s pricing levels after clearing accumulations at weaker levels.
On the OSB side, pricing in the North Central region (key benchmark) was
up 2.8% or $30 since Friday to $1,085/msf (+30% Y/Y). Pricing in Western
Canada rose 4.5% or $50 to $1,150/msf, while the South East increased by 5.1% or $50 to $1,035/msf. The trade magazine pointed to widespread
supply shortages across the continent, with light volumes on offer
commanding premiums that reached triple digits. Canadian plywood rose
2.0% or C$21 to C$1,046/msf (+7% Y/Y) with limited offerings from the mills.
Output From Canada To The U.S. Up 8% M/M In January: Based on
preliminary export volume figures from Canada, it appears Canadian
shipments to the U.S. in January were up 8% M/M (-8% Y/Y), largely
reflecting increased output from B.C. as production schedules were
increased in the province with lower stumpage rates taking effect at the
beginning of the year. Shipment gains were led by B.C., with Interior
volumes surging 21% M/M (-10% Y/Y) while Coastal shipments rose 37%
sequentially. While Alberta shipments moderated 4% M/M, the rest of
Canada saw volumes pick up 1%.
Canadian Rail Stats For Last Week Show Large Decline In Wood
Shipments: For Week 5 (ended February 6), reported carloads of Lumber & Wood Products on the Canadian rails were down 22% W/W and 19% lower than a year ago. For the twelve weeks since the BC floods, Canadian lumber carloads have averaged 10% below the pre-flooding four-week average.
Another Builder Upbeat On Demand Despite Rate Concerns: Taylor
Morrison (5th largest homebuilder) pointed to its monthly sales pace in
January being consistent with fourth-quarter levels with continued healthy
traffic levels.