April 1, 2024
Paper & Forest Products
Pulp stats – Total shipments +12.8% y/y, +3.9% m/m in February
Our view: The Pulp and Paper Products Council (“PPPC”) reported World-20 market pulp stats for February.
Key takeaway – Global shipments in February were up 12.8% y/y (hardwood +17.0%; softwood +11.0%), although we note that this is largely attributable to a weak February 2023 (which was the worst month for shipment levels since February 2019, and followed a weak January, with Chinese and European pulp consumers destocking). On a m/m basis, shipments were up 3.9%, with a 6.8% increase in softwood and a 2.5% decrease in hardwood. Shipments to China of ~1.6MM tonnes remained well ahead of last year's levels (+25.1% y/y) and increased 6.2% m/m, although shipments were ~22.0% below the record high from September 2023 of ~2.1MM tonnes.
Softwood pulp shipments increased 10.9% y/y in February – Softwood shipments were up y/y in Oceania (+98.8%), Other Asia/Africa (+54.5%), Japan (+24.6%), China (+8.7%), Eastern Europe (+7.8%), and Western Europe (+0.8%), which were only modestly offset by lower shipments to Latin America (-5.8%) and North America (-3.3%). The softwood operating rate increased 12 pp y/y to 97%, with NBSK at 95%, SBSK at 96%, and Radiata at 108%.
Hardwood pulp shipments up 16.9% y/y in February – Hardwood shipment growth y/y was driven by China (+46.6%), Other Asia/Africa (+20.5%), North America (+17.3%), Eastern Europe (+10.0%), and Japan (+4.7%). These increases more than offset y/y declines seen in Oceania (-20.9%), Latin America (-17.1%), and Western Europe (-2.4%). The hardwood operating rate decreased by 1 pp y/y to 87%, with NBHK at 96%, SBHK at 94%, and BEK at 86%.
Producer inventories: days of supply across all grades remained flat m/m – According to the PPPC, global days of softwood supply (seasonally adjusted) decreased two days m/m in February, to 38 days, with hardwood supply increasing three days m/m to 44 days (seasonally adjusted). Producer inventories across all grades increased 5.8% m/m in January, primarily driven by a 9.8% m/m increase in hardwood inventories along with a 1.6% m/m increase in softwood inventories.
Metsa Fibre declares force majeure after explosion at Kemi pulp mill. According to RISI, Metsa believes damages found from the gas explosion will take 10-12 weeks to repair, as the company detailed in a force majeure letter to customers. The Kemi mill was already curtailed due to the Finnish Transport Union strike. Total annual capacity is 1.5MM tonnes/year of NBSK, NBHK, and UKP; based on its annual capacity, Metsa would be losing roughly 28,800 tonnes of output per week, which could map to a total of 345,500 tonnes if Kemi remains idle for 12 weeks, although we expect the mill is still ramping up to its ultimate capacity.
U.S. list prices for pulp increased $70-90 per tonne in March. According to RISI, NBSK/SBSK prices increased $80/$90 per tonne m/m to $1,510/$1,440, essentially in line with preliminary March prices of $1,510/$1,435. NBHK prices also increased $70/tonne m/m to $1,290, which was roughly in line with preliminary pricing of $1,285 (midpoint).
Preliminary pulp price hikes announced for April. According to RISI, Al-Pac has announced a $100/ tonne price hike on NBSK pricing for North American customers, effective April 1, although there was no mention of a potential NBHK price hike in the release. Paper Excellence Group also announced that it will increase its pricing on three grades of North American bleached softwood kraft market pulp, effective April 1; the company's new list prices for NBSK/SBSK/fluff sit at $1,610/$1,520/$1,920 per tonne.