Sooner's SummarySo what do we know from time Rio announcement made:
1) PEA released
2) Drill results confirmed WRN declaration of what the Casino deposit is all about --- and in some cases actually drill results were an improvement. As Paul stated in one of his interviews Rio and WRN patting each other on the back and quite pleased with the results
3) Metal prices have held firmly above the assumptions baked into PEA
4) We are trading BELOW the Rio acquisition price right now ---- even though by all indications we are closing in on additoinal annoucement furthering the collaboration if not outright acquistion
5) New corp presentation released - thanks Even for posting - which looks much more professional than past
6) Paul has stated that $3B ---- no. $2B ---- no. $1B --- yes, a major could pay that and still do well.
7) Paul has recently stated that if Rio acquired WRN at 100% of current market cap (when trading around $1.5-$1.6 usd) - that would still be a great deal for Rio. Note - he did NOT say that would be a great deal for WRN shareholders ....and Sandy obvioulsy confirmed with me that Paul would not and did not tell anyone that $3 usd is the Rio target
8) We are 1/2 way thru the 18 month Rio agreement - realize we can extend another 12 months as necessary.
9) Dale stated way back at the start that Rio had very little DD left --- and Paul has repeatedly stated the work is getting close to wrapping up at which point a sit down about further discussions and next steps will take place
10) M&A starting to heat up - FOMO (Great Bear) might start sweeping thru majors.
Now, we should also be able to draw certain conclusions -
1) Prior to work even starting with Rio.....there HAD to be some discussion on what WRN management believed Casino is worth (let's say they threw out $750M - $1.5B) -and- Rio would have balked and walked right at that point if they thought $300M - $600M. I mean any 2nd grader can figure that out
2) Market cap needs to be +/- 40-50% of agreed to price prior to final agreement announced. This is just my opinion --- from a Rio standpoint. If i'm correct....then Rio/WRN will coordinate news releases or other actions to get this addressed
3) If the Rio offer is below the WRN management target -and- Casino is truly the "crown jewel of the Yukon" --- then rare jewels should not go unnoticed when up for "auction" and we will realize fair value one way or another
4) Any day now we should come in to the office with a very exciting announcement!