Post by
jclarke042 on Apr 15, 2021 1:49pm
Theory
I'm wondering if Paul is being deliberatly coy about the PEA/FS/new NPV to avoid a "buy the rumor, sell the news" sort of situation. Think about it: if one day we wake up to a PEA showing, I don't know, 3.5b after tax, the market will compare it to 2013 FS showing 1.8b after tax and see the project value has doubled.
This is with LT Copper prices at 3.16 - I'm keeping that and the discount at 8% just for illustration. Clearly I don't know what prices & discount rate is going into this updated version.
But, if Paul was out there saying "we expect the new NPV to be at least 3.5b" or whatever, the market will start to expect it, and anticipation/SP will build. On PEA release, we'd be liable to a sell the news day. There won't have been any surprises. Unless heaven forbid, the NPV was a dollar less than 3.5b estimated and then we'd get crushed on "disappointing PEA results" or something.
This might turn out well if the market is pleasantly surprised by the new valuation. That said I made my last purchase today. Stack is much higher than dreamed of when I initially bought in, and probably much higher than my accountant would recommend. Among others, I'd like to thank Newmont for their refusal to play Dale's game, providing me two extra years to stack. In it to win it.
Comment by
MetalMinded on Apr 15, 2021 2:27pm
It is a good way to think about a posbility. But either way you end up with sellers. On a positive surprise PEA, the price SHOULD rocket, but then the profit takers will sell out and it will drop back down some. IN the end the only difference between the two may be the slope to the top.