Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

I like what I see

[Tuckerthefox]

Hi everyone. Can someone tell what stage you are at? It appears after a FS you should be waiting on financing. Thanks. It looks very exciting.

[jclarke042]

Hello Tucker, start here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfTLkcTTFQ0 Then here: https://www.goldforum.live/DGG/Western-Copper-Gold-4fd74fad7d4097e94b4679db?bmid=36351e95c422 Then go back to Page 10 of this forum, and read forward to this post. Then tell us what YOU think. We've been debating the same points for 2 years, we'd welcome a new POV. 

[EvenSteven27]

I am anticipating an end of November buy out. That said, I will vote against the low ball figure Sooner keeps suggesting. I would rather wait another year. Then again, I personally don't think management would be interested in such a low ball figure. It's like telling a woman how great at sex you are and then you give her a limp biscuit. Sorry about the crude example...it's all that

[jclarke042]

What do you see, Steve? Straight buyout, partial sale, JV with Rio and another.....? For the record, I fully expect Rio to use their option to delay another year. 

[EvenSteven27]

My hope is for a straight buy out on the Casino and we get a spin out(s) on Canada Creek and northern porphyry. If so, there could be some wiggle room on the price tag, though we should not capitulate. We should not JV. Sell them the core porphyry and we spin out the other targets. Best for everyone. Rio is the opposite of what we are: 1. They are a major and build mines 2. We are a Junior and we

[jclarke042]

Look what's transpired the last 9-12 months. First it "wouldn't be long for Rio to make up their minds." Then it was "early in the year," then "next couple months," then "before November," now its "we'll see what Rio decides to do." All the while, Paul's now out there telling Crux, the Real value is made in permitting. 

[EvenSteven27]

Thanks, JC! What you said makes sense. In that case, wait we must, but the buy out price will be higher. I am willing to wait!

[Heywood_Silvers]

Hi Steven, interesting that you think RIO put forth an offer that will actually pass the BoD and become public for a vote. I don't think the BoD will entertain any lowball offers and they will be immediately rejected out of hand.  Now, we can debate whether or not $6 scratches just enough of the surface as to be taken seriously and even put to a vote, but I agree with your sentiments

[Sooner]

Rio had to be pushed (what like 3 times) to increase offer for Turquiose Hill to 67% premium to market cap pre 1st offer. That would be $2.12 usd for WRN....if offer next week. Any offfer by Nov is going to be way below all of our desired number...unless something is a catalyst to get our market cap moving!!!! I hope the extension includes some provision for Rio to increase stake at least a

[MetalMinded]

Here we go again with "the offer will only be some premium over current trading price."  I am sorry but I again state that the premium is a resultant including effects of the pending offer, not a driver.  You simply have cause and effect reversed.  RIO paid a price for the remainder of the asset, not a premium to current trading price. 

[Sooner]

Maybe...so what is the cause that will cause our market cap to increase to effect the offer price?? enlighten me...assume they are sitting down and talking about a buyout today...and we are sitting at $1.27 usd.... articulate how anyone in their right mind comes up with anything close to a number higher than $2.5???? perhaps you are saying that's why they aren't even negotiating a price

[blueboron99]

Hi Sooner, So what will cause our market cap to increase to effect the offer price?? 1. Move forward on "Permitting" to derisk the Casino project to the shovel ready           stage, as we budgeted to complete this task, don't stray off course.  2. Wait for the global prices of Au & Cu to recover in 2024? after inflation & the  

[Heywood_Silvers]

Sooner, what you have to understand is that the current trading price you see daily for WRN is the marginal price to acquire a small amount of shares today.  If any entity (RIO or otherwise) went into the open market to acquire 50% of the shares so as to assure a buyout if and when they should choose, the price would rise SUBSTANTIALLY. Remember when RIO picked up 8% and the price of the

[GardenManman]

mo need to argue too muchjust look up the old history of last junior mine which Dale sold. How much premium given between market capital vs takeover price.

[GardenManman]

when Glamis Gold and Western Silver Corp. strike $1.2B deal announced, "Western silver shares yesterday surged $5.28 (Canadian), a gain of 27 per cent, to close at $24.80 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. " 27% is the premium.

[GardenManman]

that means: takeover(whatever $3,$6, $10, $20) will not happen based on current market capital.

[MetalMinded]

Too simplistic.  The market sensed a bud was forthcoming and ran the price up...before the premium. One thing I agree with is that the market does not believe a bid is imminent right now.  When it does, we'll go well over last years high and we'll end up with a premium on top of that.  To Sooners prior predictions. There is no way this board will sell this asset for under

[GardenManman]

metal, you are right, first share price go up to it's value, then premium takeover would happen.

[gratvalyou]

jeeeze still not over three wake me back @4. or when we get permits Grat

[gratvalyou]

where's Red these days? he called this one

[Sooner]

all these acquisition comparisons by the way....are meaningless at this point until we get back to the same type of frothy environment that existed back then. But agree with you...the buyouts are ALWAYS presented in such a way as a % premium to market cap. Give me any example where the press release states, "the buyout represents 50% of NPV of future discounted cashflows of Casino"

[MetalMinded]

Completely agree with existing company acquisitions.  However in high tech and even in mining where there is no operational cash flow it works different.  Perhaps you have experience with the former and are applying that knowledge to the latter improperly assuming they work the same?

[GardenManman]

metal,the basic logial is how Rio to persuade their shareholders to appve the takeover. That is why Premium can't be too much above everage.

[Sooner]

Look at any mining acquisition (explorer or operational), look at any tech (look no further than twitter) or any of these. They ALWAYS refer to the offer in terms of "and it represents a premium of 50% of current market cap" you will never see an announcement that stated the offer is 25% of NPV applying an 8% discount of future cash flows    the Rio agreement will be

[MetalMinded]

If RIO wants the asset and is willing, except for market cap, to pay a price that WRN will accept...don't you think that the message woudl be changing significantly and Paul would only say things that drive the share price and market cap up?  Either there is no hope of deal (I think unlikely) that allows Paul to stick with the ongoing market message or the share price is of no major

[Sooner]

I would say Paul's primary responsibility is to say and do things that drive our share price higher....that's his role...I mean why else does he keep going to all these shows, etc rather that just locking himself in a room with Rio, Newmont, etc and hammer out a price...or alternatively just work full time on completing permitting tasks, meeting with regulators, First Nations, etc??? we

[Heywood_Silvers]

Sooner, I agree that the press reports M&A activity as a premium to recent trading price.  It is a quick headline number, easily digestable by the lazy writer of the headline and those who read it.  Dig into the story though and the true figures will come out when they start discussing asset size, ounces, NPV and any other pertinent figures. Behind closed doors, however, I believe

[Sooner]

i do agree that it seems a very small % of daily shares being traded....ok...so I will concede with you that 5% of the shares in hands of day traders seem to have a LARGE impact on the other 95% of shareholders that will hold for at least a $6 usd offer. That being said, we have  95% ---- investors that are going to hold until share price hits $6 usd (i realize some will hold on even longer)

[Sooner]

So they paid a "premium to the remainder of the asset"???? Not a premium to the market cap of Turquiose???? the 2 SHOULD BE correlated ...at least somewhat!! in our case perhaps you are saying they are not and have never been correlated...so again I say...what will eventually get them correlated???? Paul thought the Rio deal would...then thought the PEA would....then thought the FS

[Sooner]

What is the "value" of a stock like AMC or GAMESTOP??? many of us like me think it should be $0....but guess what ...no one cares what I think... 99.9% of the world believes the value of something is what someone is willing to pay...not the value of the future discounted cash flows if an asset...but what others are willing to pay today for that future cash flow! That's what our

[jclarke042]

Lower initial capital cost. The marginal investor, some of us call them traders, some as chasing hot money, I call them the marginal investor. It's these people who will bid the price up on BO anticipation. Like em or not, we need them to drive the price. Right now, they see C$3.6 billion and say "nah. No way someone pays that." But, first Ken and now Paul finally talking about a

[B4rryLyndon]

In regards to an earlier question as to whether Rio should increase the stake if they decide to extend a year; in the agreement they are allowed to increase their stake to 12.5% from the circus 8% they own today. I am in the hopeful belief that they can come to an agreement before year end 2022. But if they do decided to extent with the intent to negotiate late 2023 then I would wish they at least