Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

Today’s Response from Paul

[EvenSteven27]

I was asking Paul about the drill results and here was his response:

Always happy to hear from a long-term shareholder!
 
We expect the drill results soon – we have been bugging the lab constantly, but there was a big back-up in Whitehorse so everything is delayed.
 
In terms of the results impacting a deal with Rio, I doubt they will have any impact.  Things are progressing very well with Rio – too early to make any predictions, but certainly all headed in the right direction.
 
Best Regards,
 
Paul

[Sooner]

Steve - much appreciated sharing. Seems like everything WRN advertised in Casino is being confirmed!! I would think that gives Rio (and other potential suitors comfort)!

[MetalMinded]

What I don't understand is why that statement about the assay results is so hard to publish publicly.  If I were them I would want the market to KNOW it isn't WRN management and there is nothing being hidden.  

[Marine2]

EvenSteven Also, thanks for sharing. When I read Pauls reply, ""In terms of the results impacting a deal with Rio, I doubt they will have any impact. "" This leads me to belieive there are talks going on for a buyout. It's not just about price but a lock in deal with the right to match any other offer. This will stop others from jumping in. IMO WRN will bargain a price

[jclarke042]

Come on. This same team thought it "wouldn't be long" until Rio made up their minds. 17 months ago and counting. We can't presume anyone at WRN can speak for Rio's intentions. I can easily take Paul's comment as "we haven't even started yet." This'll be a short discussion. "We want X." " Ok, well seeing as you're worth Y, we'll

[Sooner]

as usual i agree with Clark --- I think what it means is that Casino is everything that we've stated previously -- and the drilling, met work, relations with FN and regulators, etc is exactly like we've had in PEA, FS, etc. Personally speaking...I think ti SHOULD influence Rio to at least give confidence in management and what we've stated about Casino. Totally agree that Dale had

[MetalMinded]

Using "Sooner math" with the current share price premium methodology would garner an offer from RIO of about $350M US.  I think everyone here would agree, and likely the WRN team as well as the RIO team, woudl agree that would be a ridiculously low offer price not even worthy of consideration.  Yes RIO will lowball their first offer (who in negotiations wouldn't) but I can&

[jclarke042]

"as well as the RIO team, woudl agree that would be a ridiculously low offer price not even worthy of consideration." LOL. I'm sure Rio wants to do the honorable thing and overpay given current market cap. 

[MetalMinded]

Didn't say they don't want to pay as little as possible, just that they would recognize it as an insanely lowball offer.

[Pinegrove1]

Our low MC is as much of a problem for Rio as it is for WRN. They are probably close in agreement as to NPV but Rio can't sell a huge premium to their shareholders and they know WRN won't accept a lowball offer. They need to help WRN get the market cap to a point where a reasonable premium will allow all shareholders to accept a deal. That's why I think it will get extended for another

[jclarke042]

The real fun starts October 2023 when our market cap....hasn't really changed that much. Oh, I'm wrong? In May 2021, did any of you honestly think we'd be at $200m right now? This time next year, we won't be sufficiently farther down the permitting road to matter. We haven't addressed the elephant: the market sees nobody taking on the CAPEX. IMO, now only two ways to solve

[GardenManman]

It seems no compitor coming, so if Rio want to takeover and price, it is easy for market to push the MC to a "reasonable" level (i dont know how to, but each takover happened with 30%-50% premiue is not a coincide).  The problem is that: Does Rio finish their checklist and satified with the results? waiting one more year can not  bring siginificant progress on project based on

[jclarke042]

Exactly Garden. IMO, a simple " checklist completed satisfactorily, here's all the results, we're now entering strategic review with Rio" PR should get the job done. 

[GardenManman]

yes, a bunch of M&A direotrs on BoDs, they know how to do it technically if Rio nod to the checklist.

[blueboron99]

Pinegrowth1, "They need to help WRN get the market cap to a point where a reasonable premium will allow all shareholders to accept a deal". IMO, what will achieve your statement is more time, to allow market to increase copper & gold prices, more time to pursue the mining license as originally planned to the shovel ready stage, more time to definitely ride out the increases of

[Pinegrove1]

Agreed.

[Heywood_Silvers]

Well, how do you suspect that RIO will "force" the share price upwards?  Maybe Paul and RIO can collude to manipulate the price upwards ("open market purchases")? Some may think it is a catch-22:  wait and do nothing and continue to wait or force the issue and trigger a bidding war.  You can't have your cake and eat it too, either pay the piper now or pay

[Sooner]

well...I don't think it's necessarily Rio's job nor do they have any incentive at all (obviously) to increase our MC. That is cleary WRN management's responsiblity. Is all i'm saying is i've highly skeptical we are anywhere near negotiations for a complete buyout ...if WRN management believes we are worth $1B CAD....

[Pinegrove1]

If Rio and WRN both would like to do a deal and they can agree on a price anything that hinders this is a problem. At the heart of it, WRN's shareholders (the market) are saying that the company is worth $1.87/share. Rio should then just offer what the market is asking. They would overwhelmingly be turned down by the majority and the fun would then begin. It all starts with an offer.

[Sooner]

yeah --- they would probably offer $2.8 -- and acknowlege it's more than a fair offer since a 50% premium. I'm not saying i would vote for that...but i am saying it's a very logical offer from them. Yep, if we were trading at $3 then they would offer $4.5, etc. At some point if we got too close to NAV...then there would be much less premium IMO

[MetalMinded]

So, for the Turquose Hill offer, you are saying the RIO offer was based on a premium to market cap and had nothing to do with the NPV of the remaining portion of the asset? Say that out loud and tell yourself that's logical.  An offer WILL be in relation to a discount to NPV and have NOTHING to do with market cap.  Say it with me.  

[Sooner]

That might be the dumbest thing I've read in a long time ... say it out loud with me....any Rio offer will have nothing to do with our market cap....and ask yourself if that's logical. of course any offer will have something to do with both of them. Have you even read the TD Securities study?? Have you read Bold Bataar letter to TRQ shareholders. Go do some reading and let me know what

[MetalMinded]

Then why are you solely so obsessed with market cap?  That's was sounds so stupid. Discount to NOV gets us a much larger number than your obsessive premium to market cap focus.  When you read those offers and comments, they say the offer is $xxxxxM/B "which" represents a yyyy premium to current share price.  Get that? "which" meaning "as a result".

[Sooner]

Give me a break! I've continually stated that we are trading at x% of NPV. I've pointed out many times that we are grossly undervalued based upon NPV. I've even stated I think the buyout will be around 50% of NPV. what I have ALSO repeatedly stated is that cannot happen until our market cap is within a reasonable range of that...and a reasonable range is 30-60% ..   if you

[Heywood_Silvers]

Sooner, the BoD is the gatekeeper for any potential offers.  Trust me, potential offers have been bandied about, however, NONE of them are known by the public since they are rejected out of hand by the BoD and never see the light of day in the press. RIO will not publish any offers that do not have the blessing of the BoD.  A $3 offer which everyone knows will be immediately rejected is

[jclarke042]

This is the part where you'd probably sputter something like "of course I know what a hostile takeover bid is. I was just saying..." IMO, there's a non-zero probability Rio "walks" next month, only to turnaround and "publish" a full offer of say $3-3.50 US. They simply have to say "we tried dealing with your board. Given time, commodity, permitting

[Sooner]

Clark - and consider this...Rio is down about 35% from its recent high....so even a $3 usd offer is somewhat like $4.5 usd taking that into account. please ...no one lecture Sooner that this is lower than the $4  WRN was at way back when there were only 100m shares outstanding ....really don't have strength to go over that again.  I'm still hoping that in the Nov release it&

[jclarke042]

There's the issue. Only thing slated from now until Whenever is working on the permit application. Lots of dead time with no obvious value add. We need a (full or partial) sale, JV, offtake agreement, something letting the market know someone's committed. Extending the Strategic Investment alone won't do it. 

[GardenManman]

sooner, I have no interest on Rio share whatever it is price drop or down. I just prefer to cash takeover on WRN. Then I bring the cash and leave mine Stock away . There will be will a opportunity on Nasdaq if Fed interest rate hike almost final stage. So I don't want use the Rio share price to measure the share price of WRN. This idea comes from why I keep WRN instead of other stocks during

[GardenManman]

the minimum takeover price just like an insurance to against the violation of market. Takeover happen here. Then I can switch this stable insurance to tanked other stocks instead of limited in mining stocks.

[Heywood_Silvers]

One thing to keep in mind with many junior acquisitions:  the sutior will usually accumulate around the 20% threshhold prior to a takeover bid. If RIO ups their stake to double digits from their current 8%, we are getting closer to the end game.  Once they break 10% it could cause NEM to get an itchy finger to start picking up some shares lest they prefer to kick the tires with nothing

[Heywood_Silvers]

WRN management doesn't believe we are worth $1 billion, they are just saying that as a catch-all statement so in the worst case scenario they won't have egg on their face. You know, set the bar extremely low and then be pleasantly surprised on the back end. If Paul honestly believed we are worth only $1 billion he probably also believes in Santa Claus and the tooth fairy.  You and I

[Sooner]

Metal - this isn't Sooner math....this is basic understanding that virtually ALL acquisitions are in the range of 30-60% premium to the market cap 1 day prior to the news release. Just look at the TRQ Hill valuation study by TD Securities (which Rio is also using). Did you see in the developer comps ---- that they range of current trading is 0.14 - 0.67...guess where WRN is trading

[MetalMinded]

Again, you seem to think it's a driver and I believe it's a simple result.  I believe you yourself stated that you believe the market gets I sight a deal is imminent and the MC raises as a result BEFORE the announcement.  We do both agree that buying needs to take place to raise the MC and that will happen when the market senses a deal is coming soon.  Then your stated

[MetalMinded]

Didn't Paul himself, after the RIO announcement, suggest that nobody would pay $3B for Casino.  Unlikely someone would pay $2B.  However, someone would be getting a pretty good deal at $1B for Casino.  I didn't put quotes because I didn't have it and couldn't find it exactly, but that was the gist.  And if I recall, this was after the RIO announcement. $1B would

[canasol47]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Sooner]

I believe the market thought the deal was pretty close when Dale himself stated that "Rio had very little DD left and that he expected them to make an offer for the entire company". At that point we got up to $2.8 usd/share. This led many of us to unreasonable expectations and then the market to the realization that no, in fact we were not going to have a quick conclusion on this. So it