RE:Whatever happens.. this is a crazy risk/reward I agree this is a repeat but for those new to the board:
I would like to offer some valuation context by making a comparison to a company in a similar space.
My comparison will be with AXON company. “Axon (formerly TASER International) is a Scottsdale, Arizona-based company which develops products for the law enforcement market. Its flagship product and former namesake is Taser, a line of electroshock weapons. The company has since diversified into technology products for law enforcement, including body cameras and digital evidence solutions; as of 2017, body cameras and associated services comprise a quarter of Axon's overall business.” (Source Nasdaq)
AXON is a mature company that the market values at 1,410,654,422USD as of today based on 0.26 USD in earnings they have a P/E ratio of 102.54. CAD figures: 1,783,381,064.48CAD market cap, based on 0.33CAD per share of earnings for a P/E of 102.54. (Source Nasdaq)
So ......
If in 2018 Patriot one sells 10,000 units at $10,000 with a known profit margin of 50% (stated by the company) we get earnings before G&A and R&D of 50 million CAD. The $50 per month/unit, monitoring/update fee/machine learning fee could generate up to 6 million CAD in recurring annual revenue. If we cut this 6 million in half considering the installs are going to trickle in over the year we get first year of recurring revenue at 3 million? Second year at 6 million CAD.
Cool so far?
I think its safe to say that G&A and R&D. Could be covered by 3 million although we don't have those numbers. That said in year two at 6 million I have increased confidence.
So..... if the market values patriot like AXON (which it may) we have 50 million in earnings and 114million shares outstanding .... Thats 0.43 cents a share.
When valued similarly to AXON .... lets say 100 times earnings. We get $43 per share!
This is an off the napkin calculation. I recognize AXON has and is executing where PAT still needs to "SHOW US". Earnings are a more complex calculations than what I have laid out. However, my calculations, though basic are sound. Lofty numbers I know but logic does apply. I hope this illustration gives an idea where we can go in a relatively short time.
Time to execute and get a sales book and get installed.
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aaxn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axon_(company)
In full disclosure I am long PAT, I own the stock and I love this story. I have no connection to the management team or the board. My rough financial calculations are in CAD. These are my personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice.
kayaman wrote: This stock is going to $100 or to 0.50. There is no in between. Either the technology gains traction or the trials don’t get anyone excited. What I do know is the day they announce the trials went well, or a new customer.. whether it be a casino or the government or a transit system.. the stock will gap up huge and never look back. And based on everything we know, that seems like a better than 50/50 proposition. The stock market is about risk/reward scenarios.. and this one is maybe the best one I’ve seen in 20 years. It may not work out., but if it does you make at least 100 times your money. I like them odds.
You just can’t sell here.. cuz any news.. good news, great news.. this stock will runaway.