RE:RE:RE:FCF = $0.72/share @ $30US WTI @ blowdown = 185% FCF YieldIt's easier to get to the point by not beating around the bush.
Yes, AECO uses GJ to price natural gas. That is what I use.
https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices Yes, I'm using $40 ed par. Which is about $32wti minus 3 differential. $29/.73 = $40 Ed par.
I understand you are using the blowdown numbers. I am using sustaining capex. If blowdown numbers are not sustainable then it is eventual bankruptcy and it is important to add that caveat. In 2021 that blowdown FCF is $20m, then less and less etc. That is a risk. Not saying whether or not it gets to that. I am adding color. $30mm in 2020 and we have $155mm debt at year end and cash flow in 2021 will be less than $30mm. It isn't sustainable forever.
You guys are nuts. Which trading platform is going to allow me to short a TSX penny stock from the US market? Not only that, shorting this stock down here is incredibly stupid. To assume that is just showing a lack of reasoning skills.
And btw, last time they did blowdown they had to raise equity at under $1 or they would have gone belly up. Fortunately they are in a better position than 2016 with infrastructure, costs, delineated land, and Cheddarville. But the macro is twice as bad this time. At least twice as bad. How long it lasts is the unpredictable wild card right now. I'm still trying to figure out how well YGR will do under different scenarios.