Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Ugly Ugly Ugly

[margaritaman]

Compare slide 8 from the corporate presentation in Q2 with the Q3 version to get a clear picture of where Yangarra is headed and it's not up.

[Overertune]

What is happening?  The decline is too high?

[mukh6]

Song and dance for the shorters tomorrow

[kavern23]

Just an opinion only. I actually don't think declines from older existing wells are the issue.  Older wells are performing okay...you would have a balancesheet write down already if they were not. The issue seems to be on new wells since late 2019...the first 4 months are not coming on as high...especially the NG rates. The company seems to think that overall...they wiill make it up

[Overertune]

Well I am keep holding for a while, given that ng price just moved up September.

[Pand1234]

Did they upload a wrong md&a? When I click q3 md&a, I got q2 md&a. The q3 financial statements don't include production numbers. The presentation was published in April 2021. Where did you find the q3 info? Please share

[kavern23]

Check Sedar.com. It happens. INPLAY has wrong mda up before.

[Hungus]

Shame that everybody here seems to be focused so much on BOE numbers and losing sight of the fact that you can still buy this company for less than half of its net asset value.  And their value just keeps on growing every year like clockwork. Pretty rare to find that kind of deal anywhere I think...  Q3 NAV history according to my records: 2018 $2.81 2019 $3.46 2020 $3.60 2021 $3.99

[derbon99]

Come on guy  they can't make fcf at 70 $ per barrel  stop looking at nav and look at fcf and debt 

[Overertune]

Net income 13.5 m?  Where do you read no cash flow?

[derbon99]

Go to the bottom of page 4 to see the cash flow summary  Please note that net income doesn't include capex...

[Hungus]

NAV automatically accounts for the debt. FCF is a non-issue - they are not trying to build FCF just yet, all that money is being re-invested in the capex. Up to now, their only intent has been to drill, baby, drill! They are a profitable company, in the good times and the bad. Hard to say that about most others in this sector.

[Druchii]

Agreed, YGR shouldn't have FCF now. Production curves are flatter than expected which may defer some production

[SecondhandGnus]

FCF slightly positive for Q3 (approx. $1million), but should be higher Q4 (my crude guesstimate $4-5 million at $23 million capex). YGR stock probably stays low for another week or so, then climbs the wall of worry. Why? Their growing (though low) FCF, revenues, profits, BOE (flowing+reserves), assets, and NAV. Bad stuff is concurrently going down, such as lower debt +interest payments

[derbon99]

Which would be fine (not really fine because all the companies plan to reward investors) if there was 30 or 40% growth YGR went from 13k bopd to 8k bopd  Amazing use of cash flow :-)

[Hungus]

There's more to growth than BOE/d. You do realize they made significant investments to reduce costs, right? They were wise to do those investments in lieu of drilling/producing last year when the energy market tanked / went negative. Plus, due to technicalities, there were significent shut-ins of high-volume wells this quarter in order to complete drilling on some new ones. All of which should

[derbon99]

Read again the report especially the "strategic update" and "operating summary".  There is no forecast and no precise schedule at all, just wishful thinking.  Basically they serve the same bullsh.t as in the Q1 and Q2 reports. There is no growth, no FCF and they just keep you invested saying the next quarter will be better. Don't lose your time and money on such

[margaritaman]

Pretty harsh there derbon99! I am invested in YGR because it is a low cost operator in an inflatonary environment where O&G services costs are only going up. With YGR having much of the O&G services covered in house they should be able to control costs.  While I am disappointed with the their inability to get back to pre-covid production levels this past quarter I do believe this gets

[derbon99]

Very harsh I agree but i think they deserve that.  I have been burnt by this management and I have lost faith in the company years ago.  Nice move to hire its own crew I agree on that.  The rest, no FCF and no growth just hope they can turn the boat like I read many times in their fantastic quarterly reports Just saying 

[Overertune]

Every energy company is struggling for the last couple of years.  But look at the oil and gas prices now.  Energy crisis will not go away quickly. This company is a good bet with current crisis, especially they have limited hedge in NG.

[derbon99]

This company recovered just because of the rise of oil & gas price, not because it is well managed. i agree the energy is far from over if COVID is muted. I am convinced there are better bets to profit from it.

[kavern23]

I agree derbon.  Would you even buy this at 1.50?

[derbon99]

I would take a tsunami of good news to invest again in YGR. There are many fantastic stocks in O&G that are more attractive (by FAR) imo. I don't like management, wells performance, debt, lack of FCF and lack of growth 

[SecondhandGnus]

Go to the Yangarra website for updated Q3 financials, MD&A+ Nov. corporate presentation.