Post by
Hendrick3 on Jan 30, 2024 11:58am
Crazy cheap
Now trading below 1x FFO. EV around 2xFFO. And that at current prices for nat gas. It has similar fundamentals to Birchcliff on a per share basis, in fact better with Birchcliff trading around $5.25. Very unloved on a sentiment basis. Doesn't make any sense but I have had stocks like this before and they rocket higher at some point. I feel very bad for sellers who are doing so for liquidity reasons.
Comment by
Hendrick3 on Jan 30, 2024 12:03pm
Spending capital with a stock price this low is not a good use of capital. A buyback of shares is much better return than drilling.
Comment by
Hendrick3 on Jan 30, 2024 2:09pm
Go 1/3 capital until debt target. Continue 1/3 capital and do buyback. That could be as much as 25 million shares at today's price. 1/3 capital will cause some reduced production but they were not making good use anyway.
Comment by
cfliesser on Jan 30, 2024 2:57pm
Agreed. I pointed this out and asked if a shareholder vote on capital spending could be considered. Never heard back after that.
Comment by
Hendrick3 on Jan 30, 2024 3:09pm
I was trading notes with James Glessing (CFO) and a reduced capital plan is under discussion. What that translates to in terms of debt targets and return of capital plans will unfold from there. Based on my correspondence with James, it sounds like you have been heard.
Comment by
Flinflog on Jan 30, 2024 6:55pm
I think a good chunk of their land base at Ferrier, Will green, and Ocheise was acquired through a farm in on TAQA land. A normal deal would be to pay a 100% of drilling costs, earn 100% in the spacing unit(whatever you agree it to be) till payout, and then 60% thereafter. There are drilling commitments to earn further land so that may be one reason YGR is taking a little more drilling risk