RE:RE:RE:RE:Only .18 away from my call of sub $2 for TCM!!!There you go. Yes, the market sees lower revenue. One thing to note in Q2 for Moly, here is what they sold: Molybdenum sales volumes in the second quarter of 2014 were 9.7 million pounds at an average realized price of $13.03 per pound.
They indicated in Q2 operating results (prior to earnings) they produced 7.5M and sold 7.5M. They actually sold 2.2M more than implied at operating results.
A similar result could occur in Q3, ie. more Moly sold in Q3 than implied in operating results. So there could be 20M +/- upside to Moly revenues vs your numbers.
But like you said.. it still looks like revenues will be down from Q2.
The market has sold TCM down 50% from the 3.00 to 3.30 range post Q2 results to the current 2.05 to 2.15 range based on this outlook.
The assumption that operating costs stay the same is a wild card. If they show no improvement on costs, with lower revenues, the stock deserves to be sold down. I would be surprised, in this environment, that they have not improved their cost structure in Q3 over Q2.