Don't Let the Shorts Steal Your Shares
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Booze is not the only reason TLRY expects to be positive. They have shown growth in their alcohol and distribution business. They have new medical sales from Germany now on their balance sheet. They are expected to receive cash from various sales that didn't hit their balance sheets last quarter. So, they are expected to be cash flow positive because they both diversified and grew their business despite the US dragging their feet.
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Irwin Simon isn't late. As there is currently no actual medical industry in the US (by medical, I mean that a doctor writes a prescription, the patient goes to a pharmacy to fill it, and their insurance is billed) as current US law doesn't allow it. Even "medical" states defer to "licensd dispensaries," which buy cannabis from just about anyone and can only operate in cash. Once S3 hits, the FDA will step in and set very specific guidelines for production, distribution, quality, potency, etc. That will disqualify many current "medical" suppliers. TLRY is positioned to export directly to the US and help fulfill their medical needs once S3 hits. They already provide to multiple countries and meet all the standards to supply medically. Yes, many US companies will also enter the medical market at the same time, but that doesn't necessarily give them an advantage in the medical side of the business. US companies have an advantage in recreational cannabis, but Simon stated he isn't looking to compete with recreational, just medical.
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The market CAN'T recognize TLRY as both alcohol and cannabis company in the US because it's still ILLEGAL in the US. Once S3 hit, it will 100% be recognized as both, because it will be both.
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As to who TLRY decides to partner with, I trust Simon's judgment over your analysis. I doubt he will rush to pick up a company that lacks licenses or accreditation. He's commented several times that he has no intention of partnering with a company that doesn't immediately add value and potential to the company. He won't take that move lightly.
Additionally, TLRY has a MASSIVE distribution network across the US. Much larger than most any current cannabis company. They can leverage that almost immediately when they're able to enter the US. They might not profit the most from US rescheduling, but they're positioned to lose the least if anything goes wrong or is delayed, and they have enough cash to pick up a sizable acquisition when they're ready. Did I mention debt? Most cannabis companies are drowning in it. TLRY isn't.
The farm bill is next week. Irwin will get clarification he could start selling Delta 9 hemp drinks, some experts say the hemp farm bill will be for the positive and not for the negative.
Disgusting runned msos want hemp to be banned because it chewing away massive profits from them.
Tilray owns manitoba harvest and it controls 52% of the Hemp industry in the US.
Tilray has over 500 distributors in the US in 50 states.
Massive things will happen once regulations, rescheduling and federal legalization occur in the US.
The Zuanic interview last month, Simon mentioned they still own the HEXO plant in Fort Collins, CO (worth $6 million USD at time of acquisition)
The HEXO Colorado production facility is zoned for production of a full range of cannabis products and offers a variety of operational capabilities. The site is located along primary shipping routes and will be retrofitted to support Powered by HEXO (now Tilray) initiatives across the country, in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.
If the stock price holds for the next few days, I expect the golden cross occurs either 5/22 or 5/23. While not 100% reliable of a long-term bull run, it may bring higher trading volumes from technical traders which can reinforce positive momentum. But as I mentioned in prior posts and comments, in order for any rally to sustain, we need increased earnings in the upcoming ER. Good luck to all!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp#:~:text=Are%20Golden%20Crosses%20Reliable%20Indicators,false%20until%20after%20the%20fact
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