Tilray up .17 cents and the sheep think they're on their way. Of course, the sp increase will be short lived, a no news VP photo op session will see so drop back. Even with the .17 cent gain - Tilray isn't even close to where it was a month ago.
Anyway - Germany didn't do it, Portugal didn't do it, 146 new flavors won't do it - and the big news will be in a few weeks when financials are out.
Without greatly improved Gross Msrgin, increased revenue is meaningless - that and impending news of financing and share dilution seems inevitable.
Im starting to rethink my posts suggesting Tilray 'isn't the worst investment out there' - it implies that I think you could invest in it - and I don't.
To each their own - $30 million a year Simple Simon has no idea how to manage a discombobulated mess of unconnected, incompetently run companies with out of control costs.
The second risk to my thesis is dilution. Over the years, Tilray has been dependent on capital raises through dilutive convertible notes to fund its growth initiatives. As such, its outstanding shares increased substantially from Q1 FY 2022 to Q2 FY 2024 as shown in the following table.
| Quarter | OS |
| Q1 22 | 460,658,653 |
| Q2 22 | 466,522,611 |
| Q3 22 | 497,708,464 |
| Q4 22 | 536,390,766 |
| Q1 23 | 611,402,319 |
| Q2 23 | 615,494,626 |
| Q3 23 | 618,007,938 |
| Q4 23 | 703,257,224 |
| Q1 24 | 730,289,573 |
| Q2 24 | 742,725,148 |
*Author compilation from earnings reports.
With that in mind, Tilray has an upcoming maturity date of June 1st, 2024, for $128.4 million in convertible debt under the APHA 24 notes. Given that the notes have a conversion price of $11.2 per share, it’s unlikely the noteholders will agree to convert the debt into shares, which is why I expect the company to repay the debt in cash. However, considering Tilray’s cash balance of $143.3 million, the company may resort to a capital raise to meet its obligations or refinance the debt which would increase its interest expenses, impacting its bottom line in the process.