NEW TRQ TARGET =$2
TRQ 2 y chart vs COPX and CU = 2 Cu miners ETFs
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TRQ.TO&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=CU+copx&ql=1
1.Cu MINERS TOPPED IN EARLY 2011
AND TANKING STEADY FOR 2.2 Y SO FAR = 40%
2 TRQ till Jan 2012 was moving in line with the index
but after that TRQ became a BIG OUTLINER
= tanked DOUBLE the index = almost 80%
--$ 28 to 7 = chopped in half and then again in half
- Cap $ 21 b before dilution to 7 b now
- RIO lost only $ 2 b on TRQ investment out of those
$ 14 b TOTAL loss.
-- 1/2 of those $14 b loss = $ 7 B attributable to M DONKS
-- vs DONKS possible gain no more than $ 700m
-- $ 1 DONKS GAIN = $ 10 TRQ loss.
3. What happened in Jan 2012 to cause such big difference ?
-- RIO took over
_ instantly diluted TRQ by 30 %
-- then the M donks got bazukas
- then OT was delayed 1 y = $ 1B loss in NPV
- then capex overruns
-- then investors started to realise TRQ EPS after all above will be 26-32 c for next 5 y
Less if Cu prices will be tanking for next 20 Y
-- then investors realized TRQ debt will be close to 100% cap
-- and serving final ( rising in tranches) $ 5- 7 b debt at only 5% =
= $ 250 - 350 m /y interest = MOST or WHOLE or more than TRQ INCOME during first 5 Y
--Don't even dream of paying the future debt down in foreseable future
GEEEEESUS
-- the ONLY THING WICH CAN SAVE trq future BALANCE SHEET
IS SALE OF ALL OTHER BUT OT ASSETS
but not at those low prices
... of course main remaining TRQ asset =
$ 1.6 b ( forget about such price now ) sale of SGQ ( $ 900m for TRQ ) is not allowed by donks
-- if interest will be deducted before arriving at EPS
-- EPS can be below 10 c = $ 1 target @ HIGH for such a dog P/E of 10.
-- so the pumping will concentrate for another 10 Y not on EPS
but on obsolete for a producer metrics like NAV , NPV ,,
2020 happy EPS projections , gadzinllions in ground etc
=====================
WHAT CHARTS ARE SAYING ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TRQ.TO&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=
1. FRACTALS
It is 2011 all over again
The chart pattern on top 2011 from Feb to Oct is so far a
CARBON COPY of pattern on bottom now ( starting mid 2012 )
-- same 3 tops and 2 bottoms within a sliding slightly down channel
-- same 4-th top ( which at the time looked as a breakout
- FAKE ONE as we see now ) breaking above the top line of channel
and hitting 200DMA resistance in Aug 2011 and Jan 2013
-- right now we are approaching the rebound equivalent
of Apr 2012 - up ...to 50 DMA
-- WHAT HAPPENED AFTER THE REBOUND IN APR 2012 HIT THE 50 DMA resistance ?
--HUGE 1 MONTH -LONG -DROP FROM 18 TO 8.5 BY MID MAY 2012 = 50%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TRQ.TO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=
-- SO IF THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WE WILL SEE 50% DROP FROM 50 DMA NOW AT $ 8
TO $ 4 BY ABOUT MID MAY 2013
This move can be supported by all kinds of possible news
like delay again June prod
, donks grabbing too much
DONKS "FORGIVING THEMSELVES " TRQ DEBT and ,or GOM CAPEX OBLIGATIONS ETC
... GEEESUS
2. There is some weak horizontal support at 2004 lows
and late 2009 dip = $ 5.5
3. Otherwise there is pure air below - the mother of all H&S
points to $ 2 = 2009 lows
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TRQ.TO&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=
4. The last line of defense is a trendline along 2001 and 2009 lows
pointing to $ 2.5
. geeeesus
.,MORE HERE
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=32271335&l=0&r=0&s=trq&t=list
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