Mongolia investment wasteland 2013
Mongolia investment wasteland 2013
Call this report :`` One Flew Over Mongolia Cuckoo's Nest``
Or "Donk's Manure `` - that's what's left from $$ billoins of FDI invesments.
There are 2 main causes of loses by FDI in M
1. Overall commodity slump incl. co.- specifics ( IE dilution)
2. Loses caused directly by GOM donks
iN ASSIGNING THE %% OF BLAME for lost market cap of cos +80% exposed to M
WE ARE USING THIS REFFERENCE POINT
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TRQ&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=copx&ql=1
The difference between TRQ cap loss vs Cu miners index cap loss = 2 times
M donks are to blame for 1/2 loses SO FAR of cos exposed to M
To assign a blame for cap loss of cos having just partial exposure to M
is more arbitrary / tricky
FOR the big cos like RIO , Banu we assume 10% loss attibuted to donks
The rest between 10- 50%.
Except KHAN 100%
This record of loses does not cover loses by:
-- Russia and China cos ( China alone invested in 2012 2 times more than the rest of FDI)
-- private and small public FDI cos loses ( about 100 cos more )
--FDI cos loses in sectors other than mining
-- M public , state and private cos loses
--debt and àdvances` loses extended to M cos and GOM by foteigners
(IE TRQ loans and advances to GOM , capex coverage = $ 2.5 B ,
Chalco loses of $ 180 m stolen by GOM , Shenhua bribes of $ 200m )
Covers just a market cap loses by JUST 20 top cos listed on exchanges outside M ( out of like 40 listed and + 120 overall FDI western cos)
=========================
TOTAL LOSES TO RIO COMPLEX ATTRIBUTABLE TO DONKS
= + $ 13 b
TOTAL CAP LOSES BY COS SIGNIFICANTLY EXPOSED TO M
= $ 5.8 B
TOTAL CAP LOSES BY COS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO M
=$ 3.95 B
TOTAL CAP LOSES BY PUBLIC COS INVOLVED IN M - DUE TO M DONKS
= $ 22.8 B
TWICE THE M GDP
=============================
BREAKDOWN
A ) COS WITHIN RIO COMPLEX
A.1. RIO cap May 2011 = 140 b , now = 94.5 B , Cap loss = 46 b
Atributable to donks = $ 4.6 b = 3 %
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RIO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
A.2 ) TRQ Cu, cap May 2011= 21b ( before dilutuin) , now=7 B , Cap loss = 14 b
Atributable to donks = $ 7 b= 30%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=trq&ql=1
A.3 ) SGQ COAL cap May 2011 = 2.7 B ,now = 400M , cap loss 2.3 b
Atributable to donks = $ 1.1 b= 33%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=sgq.to&ql=1
A.4) ETG - Cu, cap May 2011 = 384m ,cap now = 51 m cap loss= 333 m
Atributable to donks 165 m = 43%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=etg.to&ql=1
Note: ETG properties outside M are pretty worhless = guarantying loses if Cu is under $6
So , ETG is in category of +90% exposure to M .
A.5 ) Aspire COAL cap May 2011= 180m ,now = 60m cap loss= 120m
Atributable to donks 60m = 33%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=AKM.ax&ql=1
A.6) Modun Resources Ltd cap July 2011 = 65m ,now = 9.4 m ,cap loss= 56m
Atributable to donks =28m \
they were buying 1 coal property from SGQ- and donks stopped it
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=mou.ax&ql=1
TOTAL LOSES TO RIO COMPLEX ATTRIBUTABLE TO DONKS = + $ 13 B
==================
B) OTHER PUBLUC COS EXPOSED IN MAJORITY TO M
B.1) Prophecy Coal PCY cap May 2011 = 220m , now 32 m cap loss =190 m
Atributable to donks= 95 m = 43%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=pcy.to&ql=1
B.2 ) Mongolian Mining Corp COAL cap May 2011 = 4.5 b , now = 1.5b, cap loss= 3 b
Atributable to donks= 1.5 b= 33%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MOGLF&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
B.3) Haranga iron ore , cap May 2011= 102M , now = 32 m ,cap loss= 70 M
Atributable to donks= 35m = 29%
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=har.ax&ql=1
B.4 ) XANADUMINE cap May 2011= 125 m ,now 14m ,cap loss= 110m
Atributable to donks 55m
CUT BY 9 TIMES geeesus -2 coal mines in M
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=xam.ax&ql=1
B.5 )Voyager Resources CAP SEP 2011 = 140 M ,NOW =27M , cap LOSS= 113 m
Atributable to donks =56m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=VOR.AX&ql=1
B.6 ) FeORE , ipo dec 2011 cap 165 m ,now 33m cap loss = 130m
Atributable to donks =65 m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=feo.ax&ql=1
B.7) Khan Res cap 2007 = 4 B , cap now = 11m , cap los =4 b could be less due to dilution
100% attributable to donks = 4 b SP cut by 500 times and delisted
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KRI.TO&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
TOTAL CAP LOSES BY COS SIGNIFICANTLY EXPOSED TO M = $ 5.8 B
================
C) COS HAVING PARTIAL INTEREST IN M.
C.1 ) CENTERRA GOLD CAP SEP 2011 = 5.2 B .NOW = 1.6 B CAP LOSS= 3.6 B
Atributable to donks @ 15%= 540m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CG.TO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
C.2.) GuiLdford coal cap May 2011= 600m ,now 200m ,cap loss= 400m
Atributable to donks @ 15%= 60 m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GUF.AX&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
C.3 ) NORTH ASIA RES cap May 2011= 213m , cap now 53m , cap loss= 160 m
Atributable to donks @ 40%= 40 m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=0061.hk&ql=1
C.4) Origo Partners private equity investment cap May 2011= 300m ,now =74 m
cap loss= 200m ( can be less because they could hase diluted a lot )
Atributable to donks @ 25%= 50m
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=opp.l&ql=1
note interesting manipulations /convulsions at the bottom lately
C.5 ) Banpu coal cap May 2011= 64 b ,now = 34 b ,cap loss= 322
Atributable to donks @ 10%= 3.2 b
C.6 ) M investm group cap May 201= 660m ,now 44m , cap loss = 510m
Atributable to donks at 20% loses = 105 m
SP CUT BY 15 TIMES geeeesus
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=0402.hk&ql=1
C.7) China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals Mining cap May 2011= 1.3 b
,now 600m ,cap loss=700m
Atributable to donks " 10% = 70 M
HOLDS one of the five biggest raw copper producers in mainland China and the fourth biggest company of its kind in terms of cathode copper production capacity and sales revenue. It has operations in southeast Hubei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Hunan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Kyrgyzstan and the Republic of Mongolia
owns eight copper, molybdenum and wolfram mines, which are respectively located in Republic of Mongolia and the Xinjiang + Kazakhstan
2 SMELTERS , GOLD REFINERY MEMBER OF China RED CHIP 500 TOP COS .
NOTE THE STRIKING TRQ OVERVALUATION ( $ 7B ) VS China Daye- ($ 3 B )
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=0661.hk&ql=1
TOTAL CAP LOSES BY COS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO M $ 3.95 B
TOTAL CAP LOSES BY PUBLIC COS INVOLVED IN M - DUE TO M DONKS =22.8 B
TWICE THE M GDP
=============================
THERE IS ALSO LOSS OF NOT RISED MONEY BY like 10 COS WHICH PLANNED IPOs
and direct flows to M cos
NOW ABANDONED / SUSPENDED INDIFINETLY
HERE THE M COS AND state of M LOST BIGGEST PART
LIKELY $6 B NOT RISED= 60% M GDP
SO NEAR $ 30 b LOST THANKS TO DONKS
DONKS MAY NOT CARE ABOUT THAT
BUT THE $ 30 B WILL REMEMBER IT FOR loooong time
FOOLL ME ONCE , FOOLL ME TWICE ....
The biggest NOT CALCULABLE loss is missing the top of commodity supercycle
Such opp won't show up again for next 15 Y
In trying to grab every last penny they could possibly squeeze form FDI ( call it greed by retards) they lost $$ billions and pulled the country back 15 Y
IN 2003 OR 2004 THEY STARTED THE OT NEGOTIATIONS
10 years later .....still negotiating LOOOL
The sad thing is in 2020 they will still be negotiating
geeeesus
THOSE RETARDS obviously CAN NOT IMAGINE THE SCOPE
of what they have done ..in the end to the poor country
=============
different angle on Donks damage here
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=32193547&l=0&r=0&s=trq&t=list
more here
https://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=32292096&l=0&r=0&s=etg&t=list
.