Is R.Friedland betting on Turquoise Hill Res. SP downfal?
Robert Friedlans's crumbling Ivanhoe empire Part 1
Eulogy for a billionaire no more
The truth vs. the legend
and the tens of $$ billion loses by the investors who
kept believing in his " golden-turned- toxic - touch "
for few years too long.
======================
A ...CAUTIONARY NOTES
RF or RMF = Robert Martin Friedland
This is just crude introduction , scraching just the top of the iceberg
Numbers are aporoximate and subject to future corrections /details.
To reduce the number of the many assumptions and to paint detailed story
one needs months of investigative journalism and army of foresenic accountants
Wich is beyound scope of this - our opinion only - introduction.
We claim safe harbour and claim the right to use as colorful
exxuberant phrases as RFM .
Some quoted facts and statements are taken at face value
Authors of those publications ( as well as we ) could have gotten them
in various degrees on rigth- wrong scale .
Most of our text is just copy and paste of easy avaliable
stuff on the Internet.
.Our role is just to organise it, connect the dots
discover the bigger picture, and draw the conclusions.
With an attempt to look at the RF story beyond smoke and mirror ,
BS, hype ,and " legend".
At any given time we may be short or long or both the various RF companies .
=============
B. COMPARE RF TO OTHER BILLIONAIRES
Ernest Hemingway, said about the way a men goes bankrupt
"first gradually ..and then suddenly "
Exactly as the price charts of RF cos ,
and his own wealth chart go.
On Forbes list there is a little bar chart showing
the rise and fall of his net worth.
https://www.forbes.com/profile/robert-friedland/
March 2008 $ 1.4 B
March 2009 $ 1.65 B
March 2010 $ 2B
March 2011 $ 3.4 B =PEAK OF COMMODITY BUBBLE
Sep 2011 $ 2.8 B
March 2012 $ 2.3 B
Sep 2012 $ 1.3 B
March 2013 $ 1.85 B
Sep 2013 $ 1.15 B
March 2014 ..see below looks like 1/.4 to 1/3 the legend of 2010
$ 2.5 b air bubble evaporating.
8- 10 years back in time to $ 1 B ,,but what is $ 1 B nowdays É
It can not buy what it used to in 2003
By 9/17/2013 RF landed with # 1.15 b in below category
"Declined, Diminished, Died: The 31 Ex-Billionaires
Who Fell Off The FORBES 400"
=========================
C. The relative RF decline is even worse
Others and more of them each Y, advance fast .
Forbes 400 gained 300b in last Y = 17%
RF declined 9% Sep- Sep and counting
Among only 9% of the 400 who declined IN THE BEST STOCK MARKET IN DECADE.
geeesus
The Forbes 400 have more than doubled their money since 2003,
GAINED $ 1 TRILLION IN WEALTH
Bob took a round trip - has fallen back to 2003 level .
SO ,AVERAGE GUY ON 400 LIST DID TWICE BETTER THAN BOB.
D. Bob of course did at least twice better as those investors ,
who blindly followed the `legend`lol = his public only cos.
(just 10Y of his lifestyle could cost say $ 100m he made and spend )
If his 10Y score is near ZERO
how big negative is the lovers of fairy tales score ?
VS SP 500 10Y score like 50%.
Just on RF flagship TITANIC they lost $ 13 B as explained here
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22008048
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22021850
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.trq/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd?postid=22042993
Bob's DISASTROUS IVAN fighting delisting is even worse
March 1 2001 Robert M. Friedland..had . 45,402,120 IVAN sh = 35.74%
Few months earlier IVAN SP on top was $ 25
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IE.TO&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
So his shares in 2000 were worth $ 1.3 b
March 7 2013 60,397,558 before 3:1 REVERSE SPLIT
to avoid Nasdaq delisting =17.40 % x 70 c
= $ 45 m = $ 1. 25 b
= 94% LESS geeeeeesus
Means, investors who stayed with him the round trip
lost like $1-2 b
===============
E . Forbes takes 2 snapshots each Y , of mostly market cap of billionaires cos.
Middle of Sep for 400 list and Feb 27 prices for world billionaires list
Quick look at Bob`s 3 cos charts Sept 16 - Jan 3 2014
** 8.4% stake in TRQ =$ 340m mid Sep.
( TRQ $4 mid Sep. x 1.01b sh = $ 4.040 m cap )
TRQ Jan 3 = $ 3.2 = 20% lower = $ 68 m loss = $ 282 m RF stake
** IVAN 18% stake just 10% lower than mid Sep= $1.5 m loss= $14.5 m stake
**IVN.to 27% stake ( with vested options)10% lower = $54 M loss = 540m stake
TOTAL LOSS SINCE FORBES SEP $ 1,150M AUDIT
TILL JAN 3 2014 = $124 M
DOWN RIGHT TO THE EDGE OF $ 1 B TRESHOLD AND AT LEAST
60 PLACES BELOW ,TO QUALIFY FOR 400 LIST AGAIN in 2014
**due to TRQ 100% dilution in progress he will buy / bought
another $200m worth of TRQ to keep same stake
=================
E. TOTAL VISIBLE WEALTH IN ABOVE COS $ 937 M
SO, ABOUT $ 100M IS TIED in LOANS TO HIS COS AND OTHER
BUSINESSES ( flipping and keeping privately mining licences
and real estate , Ivanhoe Capital (IC) and his newest adventure
- HOLLYWOOD ( note 3 )
Looks , there is not much visible cash reserves ,
given the YEARS and $ BILLIONS of cash needed
to keep alive IVAN and develop IVN .
His private or IC debt ,if any , not included.
Therefore,he may have difficulties in maintaiuning his
27% stake in IVN without selling other assets or indebting himself
F. IVN MUST DILUTE HUGELY ( and or take huge debt )
TO RISE THE NEEDED CASH (for hardly profitable one of the
mines-= TRQ DE JA VU ) note 2
IE. to be able to buy $ ++200m in TRQ dilution
and $ 27 m In IVN dilution
, he sold 8 months ahead of it ( Apr 19/13 )
$ 230m worth of what looks like short TRQ put
he apparently bought since TRQ $17
G. IS ROBER FREDLAND EFFECTIVELY SHORTING
TURQUISE HILL RESOURCES FOR 2 Y NOW , SINCE $ 16.71 ?
Hedging ,insuring the value of his privaetly held TRQ shares
WAS A NECESSITY , back in fall 2011 ( last time when TRQ was $17)
when he realized ,he will be outsted by RIO
and knew, TRQ will go nowhere , but down.
( the inflated TRQ price was hanging on the hope
he will orchestrate if not a bidding war than at least
TO of whole co at a premium ...
sorry he didn`t live up to Voices Bay legend ...OUCH )
Closing his put position = selling 17 m TRQ sh for $ 16.78
WHEN TRQ TRADED AROUND $ 6 looooooool
WAS A BRILLIANT MOVE AND SAVED HIM FROM $ 175 M LOSES
( those 17 m sh would be worth today just $ 55m )
LOOKS , RF WAS IN EFFECT ( INTENTIONALLY OR NOT - DOESN`T MATTER )
SHORTING TRQ FOR 2 Y NOW (NOTE 1)
SINCE $ 16.71 .
PRIVATELY - SO, NO ONE KNEW till the sale .
BUYING NOW TRQ AT $ 2.4 ( JUST TO MAINTAIN HIS 8.4% STAKE )
IS AN EQUIVALENT OF COVERING THE SHORT.
MAY /MAY NOT BE AS BRILLIANT IDEA AS THE HEDGE
================
NOTE 1
HRE IS THE SALE
Apr 19/13 Apr 19/13 Friedland, Robert Martin Indirect Ownership Common Shares 11 - Disposition carried out privately -7,645,166 $16.78
Apr 19/13 Apr 19/13 Friedland, Robert Martin Indirect Ownership Common Shares 11 - Disposition carried out privately -6,263,714 $16.78
Apr 19/13 Apr 19/13 Friedland, Robert Martin Direct Ownership Cash settled contract 72 - Other settlement of third party derivative -2
Apr 19/13 Apr 17/13 Friedland, Robert Martin Direct Ownership Common Shares 11 - Disposition carried out privately -2,971,620 $16.78
There are 2 possible explanations( among few other posible shemes)
how RF could sell TRQ shares trading at $ 6 for $ 16.71
By April 28th, 2013 STOCK DROPPED BELOW 4 = 24% AFTER THAT.
Most rich people do not just sit on their shares and pray
for market mercy like most individual small investos do.
The billions or millions of capital locked -in in the shares
is LEVERAGED = borrowed , used as collateral for loans ,
hedged , insured . margined , used in exotic derivatives gambits etc.
Especially by guys like RF who love to live on the edge .
From preserving his wealth perspective , RF puts are
not only understandable , but almost sure thing ... he does that.
ESPECIALLY IF HE KNOWS THE SHARES WILL GO DOWN
ESPECIALLY IF HE IS ABOUT TO LOSE CONTROL OF CO.BACK IN 2011
Short put is just soft / another form of shorting.
For investors it may look ugly and unethical
when oficially he hypes and pumps
and is privetely betting on SP downfall.
But , hey what is new here ?
He explained this sale as `settling some derivatives obligations , bets .
The poor counterparty which sold him that insurance lost $ 175 m minus 1.5 y of
premiums RF paid
TRANSACTIONS OF LESS THAN 5% OF CO. DOES NOT REQUIRE SEC REPORITING
So, we won`t know what exactly happened
Bought privately puts didn`t show on eschanges either.
IF YOU CAN EXPLAIN THIS BETTER .. THAN , PLEASE DO.
BUT THIS RISES A SERIOUS Q
DID HE DO THE SAME WITH HIS REMAINING whole or part
80 M SH OF TRQ ,AND same with IVN SHARES "
HMMMMM
At least we know now , he can do this over and over again .. all the time .
IN WHICH CASE HE MAY BE STILL A BILLIONAIRE
- THE DROP I N PRICE ALLOWS HIM TO CASH OUT
HUNDREDS OF $ MILLIONS WITHOUT AFFECTING HIS STAKES
IN COMPANIES WHEN HE SELLS FOR $ 230M AND BUYS BACK FOR $ 60M
AT 5 TIMES .... 5 TIMES.... 5 TIMES LOWER PRICE.
geeeeeeeeesus
BRILLIANT IN DEED at cost of the investing pigs of course.
Reading his "goldrn lips " and not watching his iron fists
2. The other explanation is ,he found a stright buyer
willing to pay $ 16 for something he could buy on market for $6
That is only possible in not arms lenght transaction
IE selling to his other cos .
( you better check if IE 17m TRQ sh
or a position $ 230m ``nvesting amount ``
appeared on IVN balace sheet looool)
3. this sale cost him losing the remnants of his power =
2 directors on TRQ BOD
and the future insider`s insight
Quite a price , suggesting desperation , a need for cash .
==================
note 2
The only known economics is the PFS for Kipushi mine
15% or so IRR in todays falling Cu prices envinron points to
NO GO = wasted money on buying and developing the property
The most dangerous mining jurisdiction in world requires
TREBBLE that IRR = 45%
No one will lend them for the capex
Everyone knows that PFS is for suckers
and even BANKABLE FS pumped IRR trurns to be
in most cases 3 times lower at start of prod time ..if you lucky
IE TRQ pumped at FS time 35% (or whatever 2 times better IRR than Kipushi )
turned into around 5% ....geeeeesus )
Investing on basis of most unreliable , most and easy manipulabe NPV
is equivalent of investing on basis of clicks in dot.coms.
Counting of quick flip .. well, it took RF 12 y to do ( not voluntary ) TRQ flip . exit.
==============
note 3
Finally Bob reached his destiny - the story telling factory
HOLLYWOOD= IVANHOE PICTURES CO
INSTEAD OF SELLING FAIRY MINING TALES
WHICH most of the time HAVE LOOSE CONNECTION TO REALITY
HE CAN NOW SELL TOTAL FICTION
... AND GET AWAY WITH IT
looool
Rumors are the fairy tale about himself will be the first
Nostalgic rekindling of Gone With The Wind
faddel away long ago`legend`.
Ready the popcorn , if you still can afford one
after investing in his cos
LOOOL