Robert Friedlans's crumbling Ivanhoe empire Part 2
Robert Friedlans's crumbling Ivanhoe empire Part 2
Eulogy for a billionaire no more
The truth vs. the legend
and the tens of $$ billion loses by the investors who
kept believing in his " golden-turned- toxic - touch "
for few years too long.
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A ...CAUTIONARY NOTES
RF or RMF = Robert Martin Friedland
This is just crude introduction , scraching just the top of the iceberg
Numbers are aporoximate and subject to future corrections /details.
To reduce the number of the many assumptions and to paint detailed story
one needs months of investigative journalism and army of foresenic accountants
Wich is beyound scope of this - our opinion only - introduction.
We claim safe harbour and claim the right to use as colorful
exxuberant phrases as RFM .
Some quoted facts and statements are taken at face value
Authors of those publications ( as well as we ) could have gotten them
in various degrees on rigth- wrong scale .
Most of our text is just copy and paste of easy avaliable
stuff on the Internet.
.Our role is just to organise it, connect the dots
discover the bigger picture, and draw the conclusions.
With an attempt to look at the RF story beyond smoke and mirror ,
BS, hype ,and " legend".
At any given time we may be short or long or both the various RF companies .
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B. HISTORY OF ROBERT FRIEDLAND TRQ STAKE AND IT.S VALUE
The growth in sh count is likely due to the cheap options
IN CAD
Dec 31 2005 100,834,334 = 31.92% x around $ 9 = $ 908 m
Dec 31 2007 102,142,325 = 27.1% 1.3 M SH MORE X $10.8/SH = $ 1.1b
Dec 31 2009 97,256,622 = 22.83% 4.9 m SH LESS , SOLD 5 % DURING 2008 MARKET CRASH ?
x $15.5 /sh = $ 1.5 b
FEB 11 2011 101,360,739 = 15.5 % , 2.1 m sh more x 28 / sh
= $ 3.17 b ON THE BLOW -OFF TOP CRAZINESS, of $ 22 b market cap
At that time the 66% OT bare ground + FS ( minus the $3b or so capex to date)
FORBES REPORTED HIS WEALTH 2 WEEKS LATER AT $ 3.4 B in USD
MEANING, 90% OF HIS EGGS WERE IN TRQ
THE 66% OF OT BARE GROUND + FS was valued at $ 19 b
( $ 22 B TRQ MINUS $ 3 B or so capex to date)
, AND WHOLE OT AT $ 25.5 B
3 TIMES THE MONGOLIA GDP AND
AS MACH AS PRICE FOR WHOLE COUNTRY @ P/S 3 ( P / GDP)
GEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS
31 DEC 2011 101,938,544 = 822K MORE = 13.8 % x $ 18.1 /sh = $ 1.85 b
2013 02 14 SH 103,760,164 = 10.3 % , 2 m sh more x $ 7.6 /SH = $ 787 M
How little he has at Dec 31 2013 -we will know in mid Feb 2014 fillings
All we know is the sale of 17 m sh Apr 19 2013 = say 86,7 m sh x $ 3.2 (Jan 3 2014)
= $ 280 m
ROBERT FRIEDLAND APPARENT LOS IS ALMOST $ 2.9 B FROM TRQ TOP AND COUNTING
83%, .....83%.....83% OF HIS ENTIRE ALL TIME HIGH ( though very brief ) WEALTH
ON $ 3.4 B TOP
HERE GOES THE " LEGENDARY" BOB
looooooooooooooooooool
SP 500 meanwhile is up 40% in that time
Next Y his TRQ paper wealth was cut in half
Than next Y his TRQ paper wealth was cut in half AGAIN
Than next Y his TRQ paper wealth was cut in half AGAIN -3 rd time
If he ( with 15-20% aver stake over years) lost $ 3b
the 80% other investors ( incl. RIO ) LOST AT LEAST $ 10b
Confirmation of the $ 13 total loses calculated differently before.
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C. ONLY 2 things prevented him from ending up at $ 500m net worth from $ 3.4 b
1. AFTER FIRST CUT IN HALF HE APPARENTLY HEDGED
( went effectively short TRQ) privately all or part of his stake .
The part we already know see here
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.ivn/ivanhoe-mines-limited?postid=22055226
reduced his TRQ loses to $ 2.7 b
2. Started new pump and hype = new IVN
THE PRE- IPO IVN PUMP WAS : HE WILL PRICE IVN AT $ 5 b
AND CREATE $ 1.3 B WEALTH FOR HIMSELF
D. SORY.. MANAGED TO OVERPRICE IVN JUST AT $2 B AT IPO
This time market didn;'t swallow the IVN hook
and charm of the " legendary fisherman " lol
https://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/pju/lowres/pjun62l.jpg
IVN right from tthe IPO went down reaching it;'s first cut in half now
$1.1 b cap now from over $ 2b at IPO
RF 27% stake = $ 270 m loss . Investors loss 730m
STILL, CREATED FOR HIMSELF $ 270M
Instead of hoped for $ 1.3 B = 5 times less.
Later RF added insult to injury diluting IVN at 60% lower price
IVN $300m rised in IPO is gone ( $102 m debt repay + $ 160m burned )
Excluding the Platreef Project working capital, the resultant working capital
was negative $6.3 million at September 30, 2013,
Running out of money they diluted 54 m sh for $108 m which will last them for H1 2014
E. HOW NOT CREDIT WORTHY RF ADVENTURES BECOME
AND HOW RISKY DRC IS
WAS REFLECTED IN THE LOAN
THE SELLER OF KIPUSHI MINE TO RF TOOK
The three-year notes were sold last year with an escalating interest rate
that soars again to 26 percent in November 2013
GEEEEEESUS
HE WOULD BETTER OFF USING HIS CREDIT CARD .
unless they’re redeemed for stock, according to the PROSPECTUS
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-27/friedland-seeks-ipo-as-convertible-cost-rises-corporate-canada.html
===========================
F. Another way to look at his "legendary " wealth creation skills loooool
Is to look at HOW MUCH WEALTH HE CREATED FOR HIMSELF
SINCE THE START OF THE LEGEND = SELLING VOISES BAY TO INCO IN 1966
https://www.minesandcommunities.org/article.php?a=10
https://www.quillandquire.com/reviews/review.cfm?review_id=1178
Before that he had maybe 2 successful flips and 2 EPIC DISASTERS
Say , was worth 150- $ 200m plus Voises Bay wifall 400m = $600m in 1996
IN 17 YEARS TURNED THAT $600M o n e t i m e SUCCESS TO $1B NOW
= GOT RICHER BY 400M = 70%
THAT's 4% RETURN AVERAGE YEAR
LOOOOOL
SP 500 went in that time 1000% up
iN THE SAME TIME HIS VERY BUDDY STEVE JOBS CREATED A CO
WITH CAP BIGGER THAN ALL THE MINERS IN THE WORLD
investors would make 10 times more in SP index than RF MADE FOR HIMSELF
since the start of the "Midas touch " LEGEND IN 1996
looooooooooooooooooool
And of course no investor can ever make AS MUCH AS "the legend "
by following him ( he is always AHEAD OF THEM = SELLING TO THEM )
G. SINCE THEN ALMOST EVERYTHING HE TOUCHED
CREATED BY NOW LOSES UPON LOSES FOR INVESTORS
AND HIMSELF.
SOME MIDAS TOUCH ....ECH ?
One could only make money by exiting on top after initial run
in the past + some short term trading the bounces
( except TRQ which had few epic runs and drops )
Lately one can not get even the initial hype run - see IVN
***IE.to $25 to 70c after 13 y of Midas touching by Bob looool
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=ie.to&ql=1
***TRQ took 12 Y from all time low $ 1 to all high $ 28 and
just 3 y to get cut by 9 to $ 3.2
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=trq.to&ql=1
***IVN cut by 1/2 in 1 Y after ipo
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IVN.TO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
***SGQ full round trip 80c - $ 18 - 80 c
$ 1.6 B CAP @ $8 , LIKELY $ 3.5 b CAP AT TOP
TO $ 160 M CAP = 20 TIMES CUT
\
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGQ.TO&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
***IVA sold at firesale price by RIO
*** Kyrgyz gold sold at firesale price by RIO
***Pan Asia Petro - total writedown folded into IVAN
***Sunwing Energy a disaster folded into IVAN
selling arm and leg to stay afloat
H. CONCLUSION
A 1 TIME PONY WHO MILKED 1 TIME PAST CENTURY
LUCK FOR 18 Y
THOSE WHO KNEW , THOSE WERE A HYPE ONLY PLAYS
AND EXITED EARLY MADE A LOT
THOSE WHO BELIEVED IN MIDAS TUCH
AND LEGEND OF ROBERT FRIEDLAND
AND BLINDLY FOLLOWED HIM ALL THE WAY TILL 2014
AND THE DIPPERS , BARGAIN HUNTERS AFTER EACH DROP
LOST A LOT
ABOUT $ 15 B SO FAR
BUT ,HEY, WHAT IS HUGE PROMOTION BUDGET FOR ?
DISTORTORTION / MASSAGE OF REALITY
SO THE IMAGINED LEGEND LIVES ON
geeeesus