Dr.Copper hospitalized in China with acute pneumonia
Dr.Copper hospitalized in China with acute pneumonia
A. The last man standing among metals in this hard commodities secular
bear market got knocked down by particulary nasty strain of Chinese flu
(panic selling started in Shanghai )
A combination of swine flu ( swines got slaughtered) and bird= chicken flu
(chicken fleeding)
Give it few days before starting funeral arrangements.
The whole scam of Cu carry trade in China , which masked as much
as 1 MT of Cu oversupply ( creating impression of fake indistrial demand )
is unvinding as we speak .
Huge Cu inventories in both : Chinese exchange ( visible) warehouses
and off exchange storage ( invisible - like the OT warehouse on border of China )
were RE-HYPOTECATED for loans (used to speculate in various China bubbles ).
The real inventories are likely double the official ones
..OT is best example, (sitting on like 1/2 Y worth of unsold yearly prod )
of EXTREMALLY WEAK REAL DEMAND .
Several factors contributed:
1. HIGLY PROBABLE rumors that in a number of instances the same
copper stock piles have been used repeatedly and fraudulently as collateral
for more than one loan UUPS - NO CLOOATERAL = default
2, Leveraged speculations are increasingly going south
Series of defaults by investment scams called WMV,Trusts etc
which lend money at shark interests to another scams - IE failed coal miners
(hundreds of $$ billions ) ... were bailed out by state banks
The latest - a Solar co didn't,... sending signal ,the party is near end
3. Mar. 9, 2014, Chinese exports plunged 18.1% year-over-year
in February, missing expectations for a 7.5% rise.
This was down from a 10.6% rise in January.
geeeeeesus
Same unwinding of FAKE TRADES as in Cu case -big contributor,
exposing the level of REAL and falling EXPORTS
Finally confirming what we're seeing out of Korea and Taiwan, indicating
a "weakened momentum of global demand FOR EVERYTHING entering 2014.
see chart THIS IS AS BAD AS FAST AND AS SUDDEN AS 2008 DROP TO BOTTOM
https://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/3/11/saupload_china-exports.jpg
4. This export chart is also a leading indicator for metals crash
China exports growth topped in 2010.
1 Y later= 2011 miners' stocks topped and followed the
shrinking Chna export growth since.
Here how the China exports fraud works
https://qz.com/70683/surprise-chinas-export-boom-might-be-a-fraud/
here China credit bubble and Cu scams role in it
https://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/10964/GMO%20-%20Feeding%20the%20Dragon%20-%20Why%20China%27s%20Credit%20System%20looks%20Vulnerable.pdf
5. Shanghai 3 y falling index follows export chart as well
Dropped 4 % in just 2 days ...UUPS >>MAKE IT 5% By Wendesday
Mar 12 drop continuees
Asian stocks skid, commodities feel China chill
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1 percent.
N225 2 % , ASX 1 %
Shanghai Cu futures fell almost 4 percent to their lowest since 2009
BELOW $3 ....GEEESUS THE FINGERNAILS WON'T HOLD IT MUCH LONGER
At least one U.S. scrap copper trader has suffered "large" losses
after a buyer in China defaulted on a deal (DE JA VU 2009 )
one of the first signs that sinking prices and tightening credit
are taking a toll on the physical market.
Shanghai nearing 3 Y low . If will break this horizontal support
- a 50% DROP IS NEXT GEEEEESUS
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=000001.SS&t=my&q=l&l=off&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
6. THE SECULAR 10-=- 20 Y BEAR ILUSTRATED BY CU miners ETF has 2 phases
1. cut by 1/2 during 5 big waves and 2.5 y
EXCEPTION to that average ARE TRQ = cut by 6 in same time
ML cut by 120 times geeeesus ,and IVN cut by 3 =the "winner "lol
2.Next 10 y to spend in a bottom range consisting of
tradable bottom waves 6-7 months up, 4-5 months down -just started
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=COPX&t=5y&q=l&l=off&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
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B. NOW THE Cu PRICE AND MINING STOCKS ARE DUE ( with some delay)
TO FOLLOW THE VERTICAL DROP IN CHINA EXPORTS .
GEEEEEESUS
THIS IS ALSO AN INDICATOR HOW BAD THE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR STUFF IS
1/3 OF WORLD = EM CURRENCIES DEVALUED - THEY CAN NOT AFFORD CHINA STUFF
US CONSUMER WEAK AND FROZEN , PAYING HEATING BILLS INSTEAD etc.
C. THE GRUESOME CHARTS
1 CU SPOT
https://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/3/11/saupload_Copper-daily.png
Went into free-fall ON HUGE VOL in the wake of the MULTIPLE news ( bad PMI,
bad exports , dropping reminmbi, looming defaults of investing scams )
Hanging now by fingernails over the huge cliff below after hitting $3
Copper just about holds near a last ditch lateral support level,
but in view of the gusto with which this wave of selling hit,
it seems doubtful that it will hold beyond the short term.
Speculators are net short copper futures and sentiment is not exactly bullish either
, but both positioning and sentiment data still have room to reach bigger extremes
considering their history. In other words, it is quite possible that the selling will
intensify once oversold conditions have been relieved by a short term bounce:
2. The weakness was especially pronounced in copper, but iron ore and
Chinese rebar prices have weakened quite a bit as well.
The ratio of GYX (GSCI industrial metals index) to the CCI
has broken to a new low for the move:
https://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/3/11/saupload_GYX-CCI-ratio.png
3. To be fair, GYX is actually quite heavily weighted toward copper.
The current weights are: copper 47.1%, aluminum 30.9%, nickel 9%
, zinc 7.3% and lead 5.7%. Aluminum is in a steep downtrend as well.
As a result, the monthly chart of GYX actually looks rather ominous,
as it is consolidating just above a long term support level:
BEARISH DESCENDING TRIANGLE
https://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/3/11/saupload_GYX-monthly.png
4. ALU PRICE ATTRACTIVE AGAIN AS SUBSTITUDE FOR Cu WIRING
https://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/3/11/saupload_Aluminum.png
D IMPLICATIONS FOR TRQ , IVN AND OTHER CU MINERS
1. March 7 the TRQ bull trap closed with a force unseen IN YEARS
Selling vol on NYSE 32.8 m sh = 5.5 times average followed by
12.7 m sh March 10 ( 2x aver ) and 18.4 m sh March 11 ( 3 x aver )
TOYAL 63 M SH EXIT IN 3 DAYS = $ US 250 M SAID : BYE BYE TRQ
I won't bother with TSX - just say 0.5 B $ said bye bye
This 33m / A DAY sale vol is SECOND HIGHEST IN ALL TRQ 10 Y HISTORY
ON NYSE GEEEEEEEESUS
BLOW -OFF TOP INDEED
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=TRQ&t=5y&q=l&l=off&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
THE ONLY HIGHER VOL WAS IN APR 2012 IN MIDDLE OF
TRQ DROP FROM $ 14 TO $ 7
GEEEEESUS
.
if the sale vol would''t be split betwen 2 weeks the weekly
sale vol would be biggest in history
2 IVN too second biggest weekly selling vol in history
happened 6 weeks ago in Feb bringing IVN down to $1.5 bottom
After that we have 3 weeks of dead cat bounce followed
BY BIGGEST SELLING VOL IN HISTORY the wek before last one
around $ 1.75 See wekly chart
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IVN.TO&p=W&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p87922119140
Bob orchestrated pretty nasty shares overhang
IVN has now 571 m sh , Floated at IPO just 64m
Around 300m sh are the pre IPO investors plus tens of millions
options, warrants , liquidity shares (your head spinns looking at
the "rewards" awarded to them )
...eager to monetize them after some of them waiting 5 y
for the profits .
Most of them @ cost $ 1.6 second biggest pool $ 1.8 , some $ 2 , and 2.4
AS IN ANY PACK OF WOLFS THERE IS A PECKING ORDER TO FEED
ON THE PUBLIC GREATER FOOL .... TO AVOID FEEDING FRENZY
- AND DEVAURING THE SHEEPLE PREMATURELY .
6 months after Sep 11 2012 the first 8% of the locked up
300m sh or so were unlocked
AND THE EPIC 1.5 Y- LONG DROP STARTED
SINCE THEN EVERY 3 MONTHS ANOTHER 8% IS RELASED FROM LOCK-UP
By March 11 2014 only 40% is released
100% will be by Dec 2015
WE DON'T KNOW at what price they are willing
to sell or sold already and what's the overhang
Only 3 things are sure .
1. Above $1.6 we are a fair game of unloading by them,
Above $ 1.8 = on the double
2. Part of the $ 1.6 group may be willing to dump at $ 1.8 - 1.9
before the $1.8 guys step-in and increase competition for the
RARE PUBLIC SUCKER/ customer not reacting to the increased
advertising compaign - (Bob flew -in to Congo another plane load
of "analysts" and hired promoters ..and now they are
pumping hard to pay back for the wineing and dining .. looool )
3. The longer SP stays below 1.7 the bigger buildup of overhang
due to periodic unlocking of more shares
4, Owners of a co doing IPO want to price it as high as possible
not leaving much room for appreciation in a public market.
Bob excelled in that goal= -PRICED IVN IN IPO 3 TIMES HIGHER
THAN THE PRICE HE SOLD IVN TO PRE _IPO INVESTORS
and 3 x HIGHER THAN MARKET DID 1 Y later
Apparently, market now won't pay for IVN more than
the private guys did .
WHAT ABOUT LESS? .. Who is a greater fool now ?
lol
In adition the private pre-IPO investors are jailed by both
--the lock-up restrictions
--and current SP geeeesus
Their jail sentence prolonged by like 5 more years
loool
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E .OSLO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Norway's $840 billion sovereign fund,
the world's biggest equity investor, has cut its investments in gold
and coal miners due to environmental concerns and will review
the entire mining sector this year, it said
The fund, managed by the central bank, already excludes firms
from its portfolio over ethical concerns and in previous years
has blacklisted miners such as Rio Tinto and Barrick Gold
over alleged environmental damage.
Out of 27 coal and gold miners
* Sold down stakes in biggest gold firms
2013 was still the first year in the fund'sHISTORY when we
have been a net seller of shares
.