GREY:TSTIF - Post by User
Comment by
Drrwongon Feb 20, 2019 5:11pm
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Post# 29390606
RE:RE:quater
RE:RE:quater@FTB: it is good that you are trying to come up with estimates, so you have a measuring stick when the actual results come out. But a few issues:
- We don't get any revenue for the units until they are installed, not just shipped
- $100k price: remember RR has introduced a lot of payment options to increase flexibility, include zero upfront but higher consumable prices or per use fees. So the blended ASP would be less than $100,000 depending on the uptake of these plans, but the long-term economics remain the same on a 10yr time horizon
- COGS on the repurchased VP4s: they are not negative. Our finished goods inventory went from $0.85mm to $2.46mm in Q3 (from Q2) after the repurchase. Yes, our carrying costs are well below the true $33k/unit acquisition price, but they are not negative...so no gross profits would be above the selling price.
Finally, I think it is even more important to come up with an estimate for new orders for the ongoing Q1, which I think will drive the stock rather than a backwards looking Q4 results.