Africa Energy Corp V.AFE

Pareto Securities Report

[gimo211]

Pareto Report (click)

[misterroachay]

What does this all mean to the layman?

[SBaker]

Thanks to Gimo for posting.........the key is in the top right hand corner......... The Broker has a share price target of 4.0 SEK and a Buy recommendation........ The price after yesterdays carnage was 2.4SEK  The Broker believes the share price has scope to grow. We can discuss FPSO's, pipelines, water contacts, AVO hotspots etc etc but the crux for us all is that the Broker

[Jorrocks]

Agreed Mr Baker (champagne still on ice by the way).  What slightly puzzles me is the footer on this report  "This report is generated for Garrett Soden". Although the report is not labeled a Sponsored Report, I´m guessing it was commissioned by AFE to spin an upside.  Regardless, what it says is perfectly plausable so good luck to everyone.

[misterroachay]

Sorry in advance for my lack of understanding. Does this mean the target price of 4 SEK is when all prospects have been proven or when they have "monetized"? When do they think the target will be achieved? If 4 SEK is all this stock is going to meet, my champagne will never leave the ice (or maybe only to drown my sorrows)

[Schreibzey]

Looks to me that 4 SEK is the analyst's risk balanced estimate, which doesn't include PEL 37 in Namibia. Pareto has an unrisked estimate of 14.5 SEK/share for the entire company. It's interesting they use a Brent estimate of $60/bbl, which is high. However, it's also subject to the risking factor of 70%, so take it for what it's worth.  According to the AFE corporate

[SBaker]

You are spot on Schreibzey, The risked estimate will stay "relatively low" at SEK 4.0 (although some posters suggest the current price is unrealistically high) until some of the risk factors are adjusted. Drilling appriasal wells will move the risk factors in one direction or the other.......for example drilling appriasal wells will define the water contact which will then define

[SBaker]

The previous post is just my humble opinion...........some think the stock is already over-valued. I'm happy to gamble* that there is further value to be had. *We are all gambling to some extent on this.

[tadjames1]

Sounds like you guys are out of the loop . Join the Facebook page for Africa Energy in Sweden, all your questions are answered there. The rig will head back to Norway and there will be no more drilling for a long time. AFE will be sold before anymore drilling takes place.

[SBaker]

Thanks............got to say that's a really disappointing outcome.........leaving now means its very hard to see any real value getting assigned to the assets.

[Harel1976]

not sure you are right, you are still waiting for the full data from luiperd and for fid, as well as the namibia drill which i dont find very attractive. once they move to fid afe must be sold as they are not funded for a 10% capex of ~6b$ development plan.

[tadjames1]

Not sure you understand SBaker. Yes, they will get value assigned to Paddavisse assets as now they have been completley derisked. That's why the rig is heading back. I worry about the potential valuation of Kloofpadda as it won't be drilled before AFE is monetized. Another issue is AFE has to pay their part of breaking the rig contract. Sucks to be paying for a rig that isn't even

[SBaker]

Appreciate the discussion and brainstorming, thanks My concern (not that we can do anything about it) is that Luiperd will have it's value assigned on the volumetrics of a 73m column of gas condensate as we never found the water contact. If they drilled apprisal wells and for argument sake found the water contact at say 100m (arbitrary figure) then the volumetrics would be significantly

[trendcetter]

I hope he negotiates it so we can all make our money back and move on.  I'm happy to email him my average price if it helps him. We will see after the conference today.

[HotDog01]

Regarding the water contact, I do not expect it to be assumed at the base of sand in Luiperd-1x!  The one feature which attracted Total et al to the area for exploration was the presence of seismic flat spots in the various prospects.  These flat spots are manifestations of the water contact in each prospect.  The seimic has been calibrated by the drilling results, hence it is

[tadjames1]

Do you work in the industry ?

[HotDog01]

Not any more, I retired after some 50 years in the business... But it is fun to search for and follow the fortunes of companies like AFE!

[tadjames1]

Engineering or Geology ?

[HotDog01]

A jack of all trades, but mostly reservoir/petroleum engineering in my technical days.  And master of none, of course.