Join today and have your say! It’s FREE!

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Please Try Again
{{ error }}
By providing my email, I consent to receiving investment related electronic messages from Stockhouse.

or

Sign In

Please Try Again
{{ error }}
Password Hint : {{passwordHint}}
Forgot Password?

or

Please Try Again {{ error }}

Send my password

SUCCESS
An email was sent with password retrieval instructions. Please go to the link in the email message to retrieve your password.

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Quote  |  Bullboard  |  News  |  Opinion  |  Profile  |  Peers  |  Filings  |  Financials  |  Options  |  Price History  |  Ratios  |  Ownership  |  Insiders  |  Valuation

iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF V.AGG


Primary Symbol: AGG

The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. The index measures the performance of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. The fund generally invests at least 90% of its net assets in component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the economic characteristics of the component securities of its underlying index.


ARCA:AGG - Post by User

Comment by Spence4on May 09, 2020 3:48pm
650 Views
Post# 31007520

RE:AGG NPV Estimate - LOM 8 Years Gold price $1,400

RE:AGG NPV Estimate - LOM 8 Years Gold price $1,400I think your after-tax NPV (NPV) is too conservative. The current 2016 Feasability Study (which is based on 50,000 ounces per year production) indicates that at a $1400 price of gold (POG) the NPV is already at USD 126MM. So if AGG comes out this month with a re-rated Feasability Study based on production of 100,000 oz per annum, I can see the NPV easily doubling (even though capex will also double, they will probably borrow 60% of the capex through project finance and 40% equity, but maybe stream some to reduce some of the equity requirement) to USD 252MM (it must be higher otherwise they should simply double the size of the 2016 plant at double the cost and get double the NPV. Put another way, there must be economies of scale and cost efficiencies achieved by doubling production with the revised plant process, but let's ignore that for now). So at a minimum USD 252MM x CAD 1.40 x 90% (ie AGG's share) = CAD 317MM / 150MM fully diluted shares = CAD 2.11. The numbers go up pretty dramatically for each $100 increase in the POG, as you rightly demonstrate. Fyi, I am still tracking Orezone (ORE) for my "rough" valuation metric. Their current market cap is CAD 150MM on an undiluted basis. They followed a similar strategy to AGG and issued a re-rated Feasability Study not long ago, are pretty much fully permitted like AGG, but like AGG have not yet secured their construction financing. They are looking at a 1.5MM ounce life of mine (LOM) production over ~ 13 years and their plant will process 5MM ton of ore per annum (Mtpa). AGG identified this week that its 100K ounce "plus" per annum production "scenario" - probably over a little shorter LOM period - (which I estimate to be ~ 60% of ORE's annual ounce production and which AGG says in their PR will be based on a plant which processes 3 Mtpa of ore (ie 60% of ORE's plant capacity)). ORE does have more cash in its treasury, but is also spending more now to resettle local villagers and build new houses and facilities for them (essentially a new town). So if we take 60% of ORE's CURRENT undiluted market cap of CAD 150MM, we get CAD 90MM which is where, compared to ORE, AGG's undiluted market cap should be as we sit right now at this very moment. Currently AGG's market cap sits slightly in excess of CAD 30MM on an undiluted basis, so on this thumbnail comparison our share price should be at least around a buck compared to where ORE trades right now ie it's undervalued by 70 as we sit today.
<< Previous
Bullboard Posts
Next >>