RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:AGG Investor presentation - January 2021I'm here shore. I just don't have a lot of time to post these days but it's nice to have all this dialogue.
As for all these recent posts since Phil arrived on this board let's just say I'm far more aligned with your perspective then Phil's perspective.
I've already stated many times in the past Kobada can be a company maker. I agree with previous AGG chief geo, Pierre Lalonde's assessment (and shore's) that Kobada has a minimum 5 MM oz resource and I believe it could be closer to 10 MM ozs.
Phil implies there is still a lot of risk to this project despite the updated FS undertaken with the help of reputable, arms length 3rd party consultants. He is right in a sense in that you can't completely de-risk until you're operational. What Phil likely doesn't know, and probably a lot of the more recent shareholders don't know, is AGG did install a gravity only pilot plant that proved up that this ore was amenable to a simple gravity separation circuit. It also verified the coarse gold effect was real. Current management is looking at what is still a relatively simple circuit but one that will enhance recovery even further. I personally think the risk is low. You can't compare what Cohen inherited at Nampala (an utter disaster) with what is going to be built for Kobada. Further to that if Cohen had of had relavant mining experience he would have likely walked (ran?) as fast as he could have from Nampala. I don't think Callow, an experienced mine builder, will make the same mistakes.
With regards to Phil's recent post here and his most recent post on the RBX bull board, to imply that RBX can takeover AGG by diluting itself 10% is absurd IMO. He's basically a takeover of AGG at a $30MM CAD valuation. AGG's current NPV at $1530 POG is $226MM USD or $294MM USD at $1683 POG. Based on a NPV valuation method for AGG, assuming 175 MM shares outstanding, a 60% Mali discount and a current USD to CAD exchange rate of 1.27 that's a 66 cent per share valuation on AGG based on a very conservative NPV of $234MM USD. Factor in the reserve and the NPV will almost certainly increase significantly, POG is holding steady at $1800+ and you have a fully permitted, low operating cost project with a DFS, Phil's valuation metric is even more absurd.
I would have no issue having Georges Cohen as a partner but I would respectfully suggest that a more realistic scenario is more likely a merger of equals as Kobada is a vastly superior asset then Nampala and I still firmly believe Kobada could eventually be a 200K oz per year producer given enough time to develop it. I think ORE could have been a good dance partner for AGG as well but looks like they will have their hands full building a mine now. Maybe Hummingbird comes back to the table?? One thing shore pointed out is Cohen is not really a M&A deal guy and neither are ORE or HUM. Who knows.
GLTA and stay safe!