Stinger Value Estimates and Notes.These are the numbers I use as a baseline value for Stinger. The numbers are taken from the quarterlies.
Property Values. Includes acquisition cost and last drill program.
Cash. Assumes that all warrants and options are exercised.
| Stinger | |
| Share_Price | $ 0.33 |
| MCAP | $14,892,618 |
| Shares | 45,000,000 |
| Cash | $ 8,000,000 |
| TUD | $ 4,145,477 |
| Reclamation Bond | $ 80,000 |
| Dunwell | $ 1,694,337 |
| GOLD HILL | $ 803,312 |
| AMPLE GOLDMAX | $ 94,170 |
| GLITTER KING | |
| SILVER SIDE | |
| D1- MCBRIDE | |
| OTHER BC Properties | $ 75,322 |
A couple of things to note.
First is stock price is completely irrelevant and only helps confuse value. I personally only care about MCAP, this makes it much easier to see the FULL picture.
Stinger MCAP based on my numbers is 15M, this is my reference and starting point.
2 potential "Kickers" to MCAP
First
- TUD shares currently stand at 1.4M Shares.
- Current TUD value is 4.2M ($0.09 p/share)so this represents 27% of the 15M MCAP
So if you look at what this item alone can do to MCAP lets assume 2 scenarios.
1- TUD loses 50% of its value which would then be 2.1M with 2.1M loss = 12.9M MCAP and down 14% from 15M MCAP
2- TUD doubles in value so now we add 4.1M to 15M gives us up 28% to 19.1M
question is which is more likely?
***This can be modified to your liking but helps get a much better understanding of potential outcomes.
Say your bullish on TC and Stinger gets pushed down. Maybe the play indirectly for TUD is to buy Stinger on the cheap knowing you're getting TUD at cheaper levels than if you went out and just bought TUD.... Good place to be watching.
Second
-Properties.
My numbers are what I consider bare bones for the property values. If I was in the market to buy these properties this would be my reference point.
This part should become more apparent in time, good or bad but for me it's still a tad early to make a definitive call as to how much higher it could go but at these levels I consider the risk on the lower end.
MCAP 15M
When I look at my universe of 70 Gold/Silver plays I watch these are some of the things that I find of interest.
My bottom 10 Stocks by MCAP range from 7.4M to 22.6 and averages out at 14M
So personally I just can't see 7M which would put SP at $0.16 and what would have to happen to TUD in this scenario?
If if dropped 50% that's 2.1M loss but say it remained the same that would mean
7M MCAP - 4.1M TUD = 2.9M or $0.06 per share.
So this would imply you get TUD and pay 2.9M for all Stinger assets. Now that would be something.
I also would categorize Stinger as an Explorer, no 43-101. My stock list has 22 such stocks and their average MCAP is 83M so 83M divided by 15M is 5.5X to get to average.
Now this is much more subjective.
Let's say news and results for Dunwell start to come out and are promising. Again promising is subjective so how to measure potential.
1- Let's say it's not terribly exciting then I would look at the 14M average mark.
2- Let's say it's pretty good, they didn't crush it but they're moving in the right direction. I would use my Exploration average of 83M and cut it in half. then you have $83M dividend by 2 = $41.5MCAP divided by 15M MCAP gives you 2.7X.
If it hit the average then your looking at 5.5X
Let's continue and assume news/results are good and we move towards potential 43-101 or something tangible enough that estimates can be drawn from drilling results.
Let's start with a super simple formula to start estimating.
2 points only, Total OZ (G/T to be added later) and Price per OZ in the ground.
1M oz. X$100 = 100M MCAP divided by 15M MCAP is 6.6X
2M oz. X$100 = 200M MCAP divided by 15M MCAP is 13.3X
you get the idea, just don't get carried away. :P
Last thing, Shares Outstanding.
Stinger has 45M shares outstanding and if that sort of thing gets you excited then I'm sure you'll like this.
My bottom 10 shares outstanding range from 32M to 55M and 47M Average and again Stinger is right in that range, definitely an added positive.
Also don't forget that we're most likely all cashed up for 2 years, what does this mean?
Well we might not hear any big names doing a PP because we won't need the funds :)
and so we should see very little dilution if any and that means we own more of Stinger and it's potential.
So overall i see
Baseline price in range of my bottom 10 MCAP. In on the ground floor?
Tons of room to the upside if Dunwell progresses well.
Free "Option" if we get to a 43-101 stage which would completely revise all my numbers above previous estimates.
Overall, just a great starting place.
Let the games begin :)