RE: Let this reverberate in your heads...Thats not even remotely close to how you read that 51-101 report.
P90 does not mean that there is a 90% chance of finding 1.67 Bbo.
It means that IF you find any hydrocarbons and its oil an not nat gas then there is a 90% chance that it could be 1.67 Bbo.
But the chance of success of finding any hydrocarbon is far far less than 90%. And if you beat those odds then its 50% ontop of that that its oil vs nat gas.
So say your odds are 40% of finding anything in the first place b/c this is an exploration well. Then the odds that you find 1.67 Bbo are :
0.4 x 0.5 x 0.9= 18%, Not 90%.
for P50 they are:
0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 10%, Not 50%.
Historically 40% success on finding any hydrocarbons per well is very high worldwide, but it goes up in deserts b/c of clearer siesmic so thats why I would use that #. Usually its closer to the 10-25% range.