RE: comments from Da ProsThe reason why they are talking differently about Niko vs. Vast is that Kurdistan is only upside to Niko, while it’s everything to Vast.
They aren’t knocking the play. Its just that Niko’s SP is backed by current production & reserves from India. Kurdistan can only add to it, but it won’t take away from its current SP, b/c it’s not currently priced in. So there is downside protection in Niko.
Vast is a different story where there is no downside protection in the event that they drill a dry hole or that they find nat gas (stranded, no gas infrastructure) or that they find oil, but Baghdad won’t let them export it.
So Vast is the higher reward play, but it’s also the much higher risk play as well and most of the big funds and analysts are into risk-management. Not all, but most are.
If it doesn’t work out for Niko in Kurdistan they still have huge blocks to explore in India, Indonesia and Trinidad with their huge CF from current operations. Vast only has Kurdistan so all their eggs are in that basket. If those eggs go bad up then that basket is worthless. And that’s the risk.
Same goes for WZR & LFD as they, like VST, have both political and exploration risk attached to them. HOC at this point only has political risk as they have found a monster deposit in Kurdistan. Unfortunatly its the political risk with the selling of oil that is the largest problem of all. If you can't profit from it, then its not worth anything.
If Baghdad and Kurdistan ever came to an agreement on shareing of oil profits then all these Kurdistan plays would fly in a heartbeat.