Posters Follow Up #1 - Conversation with GarthIt sounds as if you always follow the herd JCJA.
If everyone always followed that mob mentality then we would never see a trend reversal.
I do not deny that oil trend looks to be downward but I think we have to remember that in the delineation phase it doesn’t really matter. Is this company producing a commodity today...no. Is the world betting that we never see economic oil again...no
We all have to remember that Blackbird is DELINEATING a resource not producing out of one yet so the fluctuations between now and then will only create opportunity. This is a long term game not a short term trade.
What investors should be looking at is that if prices slide further it will give these guys an ability to maybe pick up even cheaper assets. This opportunity will not come around again for sometime
Remember that Tourmaline was basically assembled in the last recession.
So with the executive letter coming out (fantastic read btw) I called Garth this morning expecting to leave a message and get a call back, but he actually picked up on Sunday. We spoke for about 30 minutes (was very impressed as I don’t know too many CEO’s that would speak with me for 30 minutes on Sunday morning). I asked him about the overall market and what he saw. He actually said to me that he hoped we would see a more severe downward moment in oil to get the markets to capitulate. He also felt October was going to be an interesting month as it is when bank line reviews were to happen and he felt that would be a month of reckoning for many (debt lines reduced due to new pricing). It was interesting conversation because he basically told me that he felt in this environment we will begin to see production decline as there is a lot of production out there that is not economic to drill at 40, 50, even 60 WTI. This means we will see a roll-over in production.
We also spoke about China and their growth or lack thereof. Garth told me about his dealing with the Chinese throughout his career and it sounds like he is quite in touch with what is going on there. He told me that he felt things were pretty bad there / very bad. He did say however that when we see a serious capitulation moment prices will come back harder as we will wipe out more uneconomic production.
Very smart guy and was impressed with his attitude towards everything. We are lucky to have a guy like this running the company in my opinion.
So what does this all mean for Blackbird? I think we are in very good hands and have a strategy in place that could see come out of this economic storm in great shape. Again this is an opportunity investors, especially at these prices.
With respect to the other questions that some posters had for me, when I am back in front of Accumap tomorrow I will look into the rights held and productive zones in near proximity.
Thanks all for the kind welcome to the Board and good luck everyone I think we may all be very happy on this one in the long term.