RE:What is PIPE worth in mid 2022, just over a year from nowUsing your method we should be seeing a share price of ~2 a share right now.
Assuming the price per boed is still $50,000/boed today and not an expected future price in mid 2022. If there is a more current price to use here let us know.
16000 boed x $50,000/boed = 800,000,000
lop off 200,000,000 of debt leaves 600,000,000
divide by 280,000,000
gives us a price of $2.14. (this is close to the price before the BBI was taken over)
If we see $2.14 by end of 2021 that would be an amazing bounce back and hopefully a sign of things to come. Lot of external factors will continue to push back on that target such as 3rd party shutdowns on pipelines, condensate and gas prices ongoing global recession. Doubling production to 32000 in 2022 and beyond would put share price in the 4.28 range. Which anyone currently investing in PIPE would be extremely happy to see.
Given the current managements penchant for underpromising and over delivering I am looking forward to seeing how this turns out.
BTW if you take current sp and work backwards through this method you get a value of $27,275/boed
JohnFriesen wrote: Using $43US WTI and $2.50 AECO for the next 18 months, which both look fairly conservative now, PIPE says they will grow to 34,000 boed without needing any more share issues.
Past 2022, PIPE can grow production and pay down debt at the same time.
Anyway, at 34,000 boed, what is PIPE worth? Companies with a high condensate mix used to trade at over $100,000/boed, but those days may be gone forever. So, just to be crazy conservative, lets use $50,000/boed, which gives us an EV of $1.7 billion.
Ok, $1.7 billion minus their projected debt of $165 million.......lets round it up to $200 million.
So we are left with $1.5 billion of equity.
If the recent issue of preferred shares is eventually converted into common shares, and add in the outstanding options and RSUs, we will have about 280 million shares.
So, $1.5 billion of equity divided by 280 million shares gives us........$5.35/share.
I don't think I need to say anything more.