RE:RE:RE:Health Canada Cannabis Sales Figures - HEXO Q4 ProjectionsThis is a probalistic model using triangular distributions as inputs to a number of factors. Based on these input distributions I measure the expected output - Gross margin shown is the mean of the expected outcome. A triangular distribution states the low, expected, and top value for each parameter.
List of Parameters:
1. Headcount - triangular(1250, 1300, 1350)
2. Adult dry kg sold: triangular(4000,5000,6000)
3. Adult Gross Revenue per gm equivalent: triangular(5.00,5.30,5.40)
4. Medical dried kg sold: triangular(140,150,160)
5. Medical gross revenue per gm equivalent: triangular(8.90,9.10,9.15)
6. Ancillary revenue: triangular(60,65,70)
Cost of goods sold is a based on a regression equation from previous three quarters (hardly perfect with three data points - but better than an educated guess).
Against these parameters I use Monte Carlo simulation to build a statistical range of outputs with confidence intervals.