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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Bridge Resources Corp V.BUK

TSXV:BUK - Post Discussion

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Post by Tinmann on Jun 27, 2008 7:48pm

Relax

For those whining about the deal today and even considering calling the company to complain, you should consider the fact that today's financing news secured the following things for you:

1. Buy-out of the 8% royalty on Durango. That alone is worth about $50 million. BUK bought it for $4 million plus a few shares.

2. North Piper is fully funded and there's cash on hand for overruns. That saves the bacon for you spec run hopes for the flippers in this play.

3. Extra cash covers the cost overruns at Durango... did you really think that extra month of drilling came for free?

Given the tough markets out there, the huge interest in this equity deal is a positive in my view. Clearly the stock is in high demand and people see significant upside of they wouldn't be buying the snot out of it.

Remember, cash flow is king for juniors. And how long is the list of Canadian companies that will have cash flow in the North Sea before 2010? Oh yeah, two... OIL and BUK.

Let's revisit the math:

Gas in the UK is currently trading at about $20/mcf and oil is $140... BUK plans to hedge their gas and condensate production.

Let's assume $16/mcf hedge on the gas and $100/bbl on the condensate. At 30 mmcf/d and 1,000 bcpd (minus $1.70/mcf op costs) that equates to about $200 million PER YEAR in cash flow.

So BUK will be cash flowing $1.00 per fully diluted share as of October of this year. Most North Sea producers trade between 3-4x forward cash flow, so let's assume BUK only trades at 2-2.5x cash flow... that's still $2.00-$2.50 for Duango alone.

BUK will spend all of that sweet cash flow on drilling. 4 wells are planned for 2009, one of which is another re-drill of a past discovery.

Now BUK has plenty of cash and debt capacity to get them to production after which point the company will be totally self sufficient. 4 wells planned for next year, all fully funded from internal cash flow, with ~$60-80mm of "extra" cash to spend on farm-ins or tuck-in acquisitions.

Be glad that BUK is well liked and give you heads a shake.

BUK just got stronger and is at the end of the share dilution phase of its life cycle.

Be happy. North Piper spuds in a little over 3 weeks.


Comment by Kel2 on Jun 27, 2008 8:53pm
For those of you who seem to not understand the market we  can put this is very simple terms:  without the money raised today BUK cannot drill the PIPER well.  The line of credit can be used for Durango only and they still have to pay for the drilling of the DURANGO due to the overuns ......and, I believe that if the driller isn't paid the government has restictions on the ...more  
Comment by Dave4x4 on Jun 27, 2008 9:08pm
Well, exactly why I own shares.
Comment by losvegas on Jun 27, 2008 10:44pm
Make no mistake, it is great for the company and great for those who get these stupidly cheap shares.It's great for the company as they are now very well financed, and they obviously couldn't care less about the general shareholders who support their friggin company.It's great for the PP buyers, as they get to sell thier last batch at a profit and no doubt were tipped off about this ...more  
Comment by Toasted2 on Jun 28, 2008 1:56am
Tinmann...Thanks for the feedback...As much as I think BUK is a good story, I seriously think managment is on glue with some of their recent decisions! Durango reservoir originally drilled in the 60's producing 20+mmcf/day...We knew the resource was there..Managment figured it would produce north of 30 million with new technology...Deal done at 85 cent WITH 95 CENT FULL WARRANTS (2 ...more  
Comment by CalifDreaming on Jun 29, 2008 9:33pm
Well, I'm pissed about the financing, but for a lot different reason than the other whiners on this board.  I'm irritated that the shares didn't go a lot lower on the news.  I picked up more shares, but would have got a lot more if I could get em cheaper.I agree with everything you say.  BUK is nicely priced on the back of Durango alone.  But it's North Piper ...more  
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