Resource ScarcityHere you go. Something different.
From Steven Leeb - an investment guru who was the first to predict 100 dollar oil a long time ago. He is the only guy I pay for investment advice.
This is his Market Update for today:
Most people are skeptics and simply don't believe resource shortages are a rapidly worsening global problem that could upend our entire way of life.
Today, for the first time in human history, virtually the world's entire population-a record 6.5 billion-is avid for more material goods.
As a result, demand for resources has soared spectacularly. To give one startling statistic, between 2000 and now, per-day global demand for oil rose by 20 million barrels-which was the total amount the world consumed for the entire year of 1960! As for technology as an on-call savior, that's more akin to a religious belief.
So we're sticking with resource scarcity as our key guiding investment principle. A rising awareness of resource scarcity will benefit all commodities (notwithstanding inevitable corrections).
First, though, one additional point. Somewhat ironically, higher commodity prices, which have made the world riskier, have upended the risk quotients of many stocks: some traditional safe havens are now riskier than some stocks traditionally considered risky. Food processors, for example, once reliable defensive plays, have become highly vulnerable to rising commodity prices. That's because higher food prices, by reducing disposable incomes, make it harder for companies to pass higher costs on to consumers. Ditto for producers of household products, whose profits will be crimped by rising costs of chemicals.
Meanwhile, many stocks traditionally seen as risky, including commodity plays, have everything going for them. Such stocks usually do best when money is flowing, as it typically does in a pre-election year. This year, with the flow of money unusually strong and with many defensive stocks facing big headwinds, stocks that benefit directly or indirectly from rising commodities should soar over the next six to nine months.