Statistical Estimates of Net Asset ValueThis can be approximated by anyone through a few calculations.
The key here is the value of the Thai investment, the net book value and quarterly oil prices.
Quarter Oil Prices Thai Invest Book value
Q2 $68.83 $21.7 m $49.8 m
Q3 $73.47 $24.6 m $52.2 m
Q4 $79.58 ( $28.4 m ) ( $56.0 m )
$28.4 m = $24.6 m less $21.7 m times 6.11/4.64 where $4.64 = gain in oil price from Q2 to Q3 and $6.11 is gain in oil price from Q3 to Q4 which equals about 1.32 elevation factor.
Whence $24 .6 less $21.7 times 1.32 = $3.83 gain in Thai Invest at exit Q4/21 which boosts Thai value at $28.4 m at exit Q4/21
This amount boosts the book value to $56 million at exit Q4 which is about $1.12 per share.
The question is whether the buyer will pay more than the fair value of the Thai Investment ( $28.4 m ).
Its my opinion that the buyer wont as the shareholders might not see that as getting good value.
This is a personal judgement based on historical outcomes.
So, my call is about $1.15 per share in book value at Exit Q4/21 ,which, after the dividend is paid , reduces to $0.75 per share for the rump which will contain about $37.5 million or so in net cash after the Thai invest is sold and remaining liabilities and transaction costs are paid.
GLTA