RE: so how are my numbers Your numbers are sketchy at best. To derive a valuation you have to compare the company to its peers. All its peers are larger, better capitalized and in a later stage of development of their blocks. The company is difficult to value as a whole but you can value it in parts. It is strange to value a company on the basis of revenue (90$ a barrel*400 Barrels a day) rather than on profit potential. The best way to calculate the liquidation value of the company's productive properties is to either use your flowing barrel model and compare it to a peer group:
lets say the company is producing 500 net bopd and multiply that by 30,000 to 50,000 per flowing barrel (similar to peer group) and you come upon a rough valuation of 15-25 Million Dollars.
The other method you could use is taking p1 reserves of 10Million and 50% of probable reserves (to reflect the probability of their production) and the reserve value comes down to 15 Million dollars PV10.
I would say that these two estimates are innacurate but I would assess value in the following way:
Giving whole value to P2 PV10 ~30 Million
Applying 2M dollars in value to the 10% interest in guatemala
Adding 8 Million in GICs and drilling committments that will eventually amount ot wells
Compiling this valuation I come upon a somewhat presumptious 40 Million dollar valuation which amounts to 60 cents a share or so. I believe this is what the company is worth up for sale. In bankruptcy it is probably worth 15-20 Million dollars.