TSXV:CMI - Post Discussion
Post by
FormerHedgie on Mar 22, 2024 11:57am
Add sensitivity PDF / Screenshots don't seem to work here
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| | 2024 Phase Array Antenna Market (Base Case @2021) | | | | 2024 Phase Array Antenna Market (Upside Case @2031) | | | |
| | https://www.businessresearchinsights.com/market-reports/phased-array-antenna-market-102544 | | | https://www.businessresearchinsights.com/market-reports/phased-array-antenna-market-102544 | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | 2021 Market Size (US$) | | 3,644,900,000 | | 2021 Market Size (US$) | | 10,690,000,000 | |
| | Communications Antenna Market Share Est% | | 40% | | Communications Antenna Market Share Est% | | 40% | |
| | Total Addressable Comminications based PAA market (US$) | | 1,457,960,000 | | Total Addressable Comminications based PAA market (US$) | | 4,276,000,000 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | C-COM market share penetrations (%) | | | | C-COM market share penetrations (%) | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | 0.5% of market | | 7,289,800 | | 0.5% of market | | 21,380,000 | |
| | 1.0% of market | | 14,579,600 | | 1.0% of market | | 42,760,000 | |
| | 1.5% of market | | 21,869,400 | | 1.5% of market | | 64,140,000 | |
| | 2.0% of market | | 29,159,200 | | 2.0% of market | | 85,520,000 | |
| | 2.5% of market | | 36,449,000 | | 2.5% of market | | 106,900,000 | |
| | 3.0% of market | | 43,738,800 | | 3.0% of market | | 128,280,000 | |
| | 3.5% of market | | 51,028,600 | | 3.5% of market | | 149,660,000 | |
| | 4.0% of market | | 58,318,400 | | 4.0% of market | | 171,040,000 | |
| | 4.5% of market | | 65,608,200 | | 4.5% of market | | 192,420,000 | |
| | 5.0% of market | | 72,898,000 | | 5.0% of market | | 213,800,000 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | Contribution Margin % | | 50% | | Contribution Margin % | | 50% | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | Contribution Margin per marketshare % | | | | Contribution Margin per marketshare % | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | 0.5% | | 3,644,900 | | 0.5% | | 10,690,000 | |
| | 1.0% | | 7,289,800 | | 1.0% | | 21,380,000 | |
| | 1.5% | | 10,934,700 | | 1.5% | | 32,070,000 | |
| | 2.0% | | 14,579,600 | | 2.0% | | 42,760,000 | |
| | 2.5% | | 18,224,500 | | 2.5% | | 53,450,000 | |
| | 3.0% | | 21,869,400 | | 3.0% | | 64,140,000 | |
| | 3.5% | | 25,514,300 | | 3.5% | | 74,830,000 | |
| | 4.0% | | 29,159,200 | | 4.0% | | 85,520,000 | |
| | 4.5% | | 32,804,100 | | 4.5% | | 96,210,000 | |
| | 5.0% | | 36,449,000 | | 5.0% | | 106,900,000 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | Market Cap Contribution at 20x pro-forma EBITDA per marketshare % | | Market Cap Contribution at 20x pro-forma EBITDA per marketshare % | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | 0.5% | | 72,898,000 | | 0.5% | | 213,800,000 | |
| | 1.0% | | 145,796,000 | | 1.0% | | 427,600,000 | |
| | 1.5% | | 218,694,000 | | 1.5% | | 641,400,000 | |
| | 2.0% | | 291,592,000 | | 2.0% | | 855,200,000 | |
| | 2.5% | | 364,490,000 | | 2.5% | | 1,069,000,000 | |
| | 3.0% | | 437,388,000 | | 3.0% | | 1,282,800,000 | |
| | 3.5% | | 510,286,000 | | 3.5% | | 1,496,600,000 | |
| | 4.0% | | 583,184,000 | | 4.0% | | 1,710,400,000 | |
| | 4.5% | | 656,082,000 | | 4.5% | | 1,924,200,000 | |
| | 5.0% | | 728,980,000 | | 5.0% | | 2,138,000,000 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | Implied incremental share price on Market Cap Contribution | | | | Implied incremental share price on Market Cap Contribution | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | Share oustanding (per yahoo finance) | | 42,750,000 | | Share oustanding (per yahoo finance) | | 42,750,000 | |
| | Existing base business value / share (current stock price) | | $1.30 | | Existing base business value / share (current stock price) | | $1.30 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | 0.5% | | $1.71 | | 0.5% | | $5.00 | |
| | 1.0% | | $3.41 | | 1.0% | | $10.00 | |
| | 1.5% | | $5.12 | | 1.5% | | $15.00 | |
| | 2.0% | | $6.82 | | 2.0% | | $20.00 | |
| | 2.5% | | $8.53 | | 2.5% | | $25.01 | |
| | 3.0% | | $10.23 | | 3.0% | | $30.01 | |
| | 3.5% | | $11.94 | | 3.5% | | $35.01 | |
| | 4.0% | | $13.64 | | 4.0% | | $40.01 | |
| | 4.5% | | $15.35 | | 4.5% | | $45.01 | |
| | 5.0% | | $17.05 | | 5.0% | | $50.01 | |
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| | Potential share price (current share price + incremental value) | | | Potential share price (current share price + incremental value) | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | 0.5% | | $3.01 | | 0.5% | | $6.30 | |
| | 1.0% | | $4.71 | | 1.0% | | $11.30 | |
| | 1.5% | | $6.42 | | 1.5% | | $16.30 | |
| | 2.0% | | $8.12 | | 2.0% | | $21.30 | |
| | 2.5% | | $9.83 | | 2.5% | | $26.31 | |
| | 3.0% | | $11.53 | | 3.0% | | $31.31 | |
| | 3.5% | | $13.24 | | 3.5% | | $36.31 | |
| | 4.0% | | $14.94 | | 4.0% | | $41.31 | |
| | 4.5% | | $16.65 | | 4.5% | | $46.31 | |
| | 5.0% | | $18.35 | | 5.0% | | $51.31 | |
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