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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Canada Nickel Company Inc V.CNC

Alternate Symbol(s):  CNIKF

Canada Nickel Company Inc. is a Canada-based company, which is engaged in advancing the nickel-sulfide projects to deliver nickel required to feed the electric vehicle and stainless-steel markets. The Company owns flagship Crawford Nickel-Cobalt Sulphide Project in the heart of the prolific Timmins-Cochrane mining camp. The Company also owns 25 additional nickel targets located near the... see more

TSXV:CNC - Post Discussion

Canada Nickel Company Inc > A very conservative NAV valuation for CNC.
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Post by apapas1973 on Jul 03, 2023 12:12am

A very conservative NAV valuation for CNC.

Just to quickly conceptualize some numbers when it comes to a valuation. I'm going to further dilute as well since some are constantly focused on that. 
The NAV of Crawford is 1.2 billion based on the PEA. But the measured and indicated have roughly doubled since then so the delayed feasibility should show the upgrade. If I recall, Mark was stating somewhere around 1.7-1.8 billion NAV but I don't think the upgraded resource was out just yet. It came in above their expectations. But I'll use 1.8 billion regardless. In the last video Mark states the going rate for an expandable project (not Dumont) receives in a buyout somewhere around 1.2-1.5 times the NAV. I'll use 1.2. 
I'll also add 35 million shares to the float of 140 million . So a total of 175 million shares outstanding and I'll use today's price of 1.25. I'm trying to keep numbers at a minimum. 

Based on the above info, we'll have a market cap of roughly 220 million. A NAV of 1.8 billion and a premium on these numbers of 1.2 times the NAV in a buyout. The buyout valuation comes in at roughly 2.2 billion and the share price of that, roughly $12. This is just for Crawford. There are obviously other factors that could influence the numbers up or down (further dilution, nickel fluctuations  etc) but this gives an idea at the discount we're trading at. If these numbers even remotely play out, we've got a lot of catching up to do. GLTA
Comment by cashworx79 on Jul 03, 2023 1:10am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by EndZonefor7 on Jul 03, 2023 11:54am
Good numbers apapas. $2.2 billion sounds like a lot, but in the big picture of each EV or battery maker getting $13 billion or more it's a drop in the bucket to make the whole supply chain function. I'd reckon that an extra billion or so would get you the other properties for expansion purposes for the next 100 years pushing us into the $20's range. What's an extra billion if the ...more  
Comment by apapas1973 on Jul 03, 2023 12:23pm
Exactly what I was getting at Endzone. A realistic number would put us in the 20-30 range. I know people want to hear 50,60 and higher, and that is possible. But you would need the perfect scenario where the takeover would come when the economy is at its peak, the nickel price is flying high and you would need a strong bidding war between a couple of majors. Not saying it's impossible. But ...more  
Comment by EndZonefor7 on Jul 03, 2023 1:48pm
The longer the big boys stay on the sidelines the more nickel gets proven up from the 20 other properties. Looking forward to seeing the assays from Midlothian. Mann NW has some more assays coming too.  You usually don't get as much for exploration properties outside the main mine in a takeover. In CNC's case though they have shown the same geology on the ones they've drilled so ...more  
Comment by CEOofEPO on Jul 03, 2023 9:33pm
The entire canadian shield is low grade nickel bro
Comment by CravingProfits on Jul 03, 2023 10:32pm
...and the ocean is full of fish. Should i be  buying a commercial fishing boat.? I have a good feeling for next week btw. Please do mot prove me wrong Glta
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