OTCPK:COPJF - Post by User
Comment by
moneymotivatoron Jul 11, 2011 1:08pm
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Post# 18818447
RE: Question for moneymotivator......
RE: Question for moneymotivator......Good question: theres lots of stuff we dont know about that could have happened during Q1 and so far during Q2 which could have and are significantly impacting the companies net earning, I will use EBITA to gain a simple understanding of maximum expected cash flows by referring to past data of production which is conservative IMO :
Using a $15 per tonne EBITA as a rough estimate and 30 000 tonnes of production in Q1 as mentioned in the companies latest news release gives me just under half a million EBITA or just under 2 million yearly. I think its fair to say that $15 dollar figure used could become $20 when results are out due to a stream lining of operations and high coal prices which would rise EBITA to just over half a million in Q1. For Q2 we can add BCC's past production of 132 500 tonnes (2010 yearly of 530 000/4) and come up with an estimate of EBITA per tonne by taking 2011 EBITA $9.2 million and divide that by 530 000 tonnes which gives BCC roughly an average of $17 per tonne EBITA.
132 500 tonnes from BCC at $17 per tonne EBITA would provide roughly to an additonal $2.3 million EBITA in Q2 to Canam's 30 000 tonnes or
.5 million (which will likely be higher than my Q1 estimates) which gives me an estimated EBITA for Q2 of $2.7 million. So depending on how you calculate P/E which is generally done after EBITA such numbers could change significantly so to make things simple I would not be expecting earnings to be any higher. Still such numbers should provide investors with a good idea of the companies cash generating potential.
In the mid-term (year-end) I see the SP maybe going to 50 cents as others have mentioned depending on investors appetite for risk especially in the junior arena which has been clobbered. When you can buy quality stocks like COE for 50% discount you can expect to make money if you have the patience to hold for a while (mid-term). If you looking to make a quick buck I would recommend going to the casino and betting it all on black or day trade leveraged ETF's
Cheers,
TripleM