You know, if these guys could ever get their act together, things could work out yet....
Thermal coal poised to beat oil, gas after quake
Demand in China, India up as Japan expected to rely more on coal-fired plants for power
April 24, 2011
Washington Post
Washington:Thermal coal may outpace oil and gas this year, rising more than 30 percent to a record, as demand from China and India accelerates and Japanboosts imports to make up for nuclear power lost after the Marchearthquake.
Prices at the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark for Asia, mayaverage $130 (Dh477.46) a metric tonne in 2011, the median forecast ofseven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg shows.
That compares with $99 a tonne last year, according to data compiledby Bloomberg and IHS McCloskey, a Petersfield, England-based researcher.
New York crude futures are forecast to rise 26 per cent next year, while US natural gas will be unchanged.
Demand for coal isincreasing in China and India as the countries look to fuel economiesthat are outpacing the rest of the world.
China's purchases may rise by 7.8 per cent in 2011, while India's may climb 28 per cent, Societe Generale said last month.
Japan may consume as much as one million extra tonnes this year asthe country turns to coal-fired plants to make up for the loss ofnuclear generation, according to Deutsche Bank.
"The demand story for thermal coal is going to look quite strong,"said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia and NewZealand Banking Group in Melbourne, who estimated contract prices forthe 12 months starting April 1 would reach $130 a tonne.
Accelerated increase
"This year we're going to see quite an accelerated increase in demand from India. China will again be a strong contributor."
Thermal coal will average $132 a tonne this year and $145 in 2012 asdemand from Japanese utilities for fuel with high-energy content rises,Daniel Brebner, an analyst for Deutsche Bank in London, said in an April8 report.
Price estimates ranged from $118 to $150 a tonne in the survey.
Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures may average $100.14 abarrel in 2011 from $79.61 last year, according to the average forecastof 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, with the most recent predictionsgiven the heaviest weightings.