Catch the Wind Ltd V.CTW

Humpty Dumpty

[JDTrade]

I have a feeling that the wall at .14 cents yesterday was supposed to stay up, and keep the price down, so when it accidentally fell, the houses were scrambling to get the price back down, hence the dunping of UBS and Jit back to .12.  I wouldn't be suprised to see another wall get formed at .14 to try this plan again, hoping that folks will be afraid to break down the barrier ... once again.

 

Either way, lots of shares traded in the .14 to .15 range, which bodes well going forward, as that should become our new base.

 

JD

[xsnrg]

Definitely some games being played.  If I was about to finance a PP I would be doing the same thing but they can't keep us down forever.  We had some awesome blogs written by that J_Harbaugh guy, the conference call was fantastic last week, they have slowed the burn rate and outsourced production.  Now the final piece is the large order annoucement and PP to finance the cost of

[BigDolphin42]

Okay xsnrg, I will bite....just how far out of control?

[xsnrg]

That's a very good question.  It depends on the size of this major order.  So far we have only had 1-2 trial size orders and a few follow-up trial orders in the 5 range.  Mind you we have had a LOT of these little orders so the product is out there and gaining lots of little bites of interest but we don't know how big the first big bite is going to be.  I see order

[j_harbaugh]

Let's break down a 5000 unit order. Let's assume a $50K price and a 10% margin net of all costs including tax. That leaves $5K of profit per unit. Assuming the order takes place to the tune of 1000 per year, first year profit would be $5K x 1000 = $5M. A 20 to 1 P/E would be a $100M market cap, 50 to 1 would be $250M market cap. So a 5000 unit order should assume at least a $1-$2 price

[xsnrg]

I think your estimates are way too conservative.  Each assumption isn't that conservative on its own but you are taking the absolute minimum of every variable and when you put them all together it starts to really understate the whole picture.     Then again your blog was outstanding and your target price of 70 cents this year seems more than fair so I respect your opinion

[peakoiled]

I don't think any company will jump from 1-2 units to 5000, ever. If they had that much capital they would just buy CTW. CTW couldn't even fill a 5000 unit order in any decent amount of time anyhow. I think companies will ease their way into orders at around the 50-100 unit amount. This will allow them build even more confidence about the device. Also, I don't think any wind projects

[j_harbaugh]

Good post. My rebuttal to the buyout is that Hunter Hall pretty much owns the poison pill on CTW and I think they would nix anything below their average cost which has got to be around 70 cents or so. They likely won't say yes to anything below a buck, so we are all heading in the same general price target with our comments anyways.    I strongly approve of CTW's incentive-laden

[boomboom2]

Well put PEAKOILED!!     BB2.

[requiemeterna]

'XSNRG' BIG DREAMER YOU ARE  but  thats ok  nothing wrong with that.