RE:Does price matter?I agree with Treetop2 that the current project economics are very challenging: capital requirements are very high and reference phosphate prices are low, and can even go lower.
However, current FOB cost for the current project is around $89.34/t, based on the original BFS FOB of $93.60/t minus $4.26/t savings identified since the BFS.
And, the price that they expect for their rock is between $148/t and $168/t, based on a reference Morocco rock price of $98/t (at 32% P2O5), plus a premium of $50/t to $70/t (I have recently verified that information directly with them).
Based on my understanding, the premium is attributable to: 1) 39%-40% P2O5, 2) the absence of contaminants (arsenic, uranium, cadmium, etc.) and 3) other aspect of the chemical configuration of the rock that makes it less expensive to transform into phosphoric acid.
Under the current prices, I roughly estimate the project NPV to be between $900M-$1.2B.
Also, a lot of other negative factors are to be taken into consideration: additional capacity recently added, or being added, worldwide, Russian dumping, further drops in phosphate rock price, etc.
As well as other positive factors: geopolitics, new rules on fertilizers contaminants, consolidation in the fertilizer industry, increased demand for fertilizers in developing countries, closure of many apatite mines, etc.
Personally, I think that the current big picture, of course also considering the bearish aspects of it, makes it favorable for a straight buyout, and for that reason I am carefully accumulating.