FDR and GBR – updated compare and contrastAs Eric Coffin pointed out yesterday, people like me should quit being so impatient. I can’t argue with that, except to note how it’s easier said than done.
The “soft news” as Excel calls it has been encouraging. We have a dedicated “IR man” now, who, in this case, happens to be a well-spoken, intelligent-looking woman. Watching her Skeena interviews leaves me with little doubt Katie MacKenzie will be a great addition to our team. Not that I had any complaints about our previous IR service, but it can’t hurt to have FDR as one’s sole focus for this kind of work.
And – finally - the third drill rig is on the way. Coming from outside of South America presumably, given the predicted June arrival date. And getting straight to work on Beuse. Depending on whether a new crew will have to be trained (hopefully they just shift some veterans from Upper Antino, taking the temporary efficiency hit there) the first Buese cores could be on their way to the lab sometime between early June and early July.
Having reached the spending threshold required to get to 51% project share is good to hear, but we knew that was coming quickly anyhow. I don’t know what to expect about one of the other requirements: a formal 500,000 oz resource estimate. Hopefully the vendor is waiving that given the finds so far, which conservatively already top one million oz.
Another new analyst is following FDR, though I think his $4-8 million oz estimate for Antino’s potential is a little conservative. Give it time, however. He is just being sensible as a recognized professional.
Meanwhile, gold has retreated a bit from its recent highs, but I still like its chart. A lot.
In light of all this, it’s a good time to compare ourselves with Great Bear again. As I’ve mentioned previously, both FDR and GBR got their initial drill hits in late August. GBR moved its rigs far away from the zone of its initial hit almost immediately, I think.
Nine months later (May 2019) Great Bear discovered its second zone, sharply reversing the five-month downtrend in its share price. It passed $4 decisively a short while later and never really looked back. I don’t count the brief Covid panic… though it certainly counted at the time if you had the guts to jump onboard GBR sub - $4.00 during the few hours it revisited that level one last time.
Whereas Chris Taylor was in a hurry to find evidence of the possible value of the Dixie big picture, maybe because of the internal threat posed by some hostile large GBR shareholders, Colin Padget has the luxury of time and a supportive ownership base. And the cost savings of owning his drills. Padget could have jumped down to Beuse long ago, but is seeking a different way of maximizing market interest.
Given our quicker lab turnaround, my guess is we are roughly on pace to mimic GBR’s share price path. Our chart breakout from showing the market a second major gold zone several kilometers from our initial hits may be a month or two slower, but could result in a larger move.
And we should still be getting assays from Upper Antino all the while. Speaking of which, another batch ought to be here any minute.
Yes, the journey is half the fun, as I try to remind myself when things seem to slow to a crawl. At least FDR’s stock price is threatening a new high again these last couple of days. Artificial joy, until backed by results, but I’ll take it!