Share price (reprise of June 26 post, with updates)Since this rise in share price has come under question, I thought it an idea to reprise a post from June 26 in which I discussed the value of the company and its share price.
What has changed (and positively so) since then? Flyht is set to deliver its new AI software to launch customers on or about October 21. And the aviation industry is beginning to see some recovery - Flyht's reported flight hours down as much as 55% in April, were down just 32% in September.
These bullet points are from the September 2020 investor presentation...
(link to presentation) - Global leader in real-time insights that allow the commercial aviation industry to operate more efficiently
- Worldwide opportunity to support essential commercial aviation restructure post COVID-19 and beyond
- Strategic refocus to sell software first that delivers immediate ROI and cash flow savings for customers; subsequent upsell of hardware solutions(services first, capex later)
- Solid and growing SaaS pipeline and recurring revenue stream raises growth visibility and margin profile
- Fragmented industry ripe for consolidation – backlog of tuck-in acquisition candidates
- Experienced leadership taking advantage of existing core competencies and market dislocation
- Goal to uplist to a national US exchange in 2021, subject to market conditions
Posted on June 26...
So, what is Flyht worth?
Flyht owns patents and certifications on both its legacy line of product (AFIRS and its suite of software) and for the product line acquired outright from Panasonic (the Tamdar sensor and FlightLink).
Flyht owns inventory, tools, office equipment, and the like.
Flyht has a margin on sales that ranges from 50% to 90%, on hardware, software and licensing. Flyht has a recurring revenue model that works.
While Flyht may no longer directly install hardware, it does earn fees for providing the know-how and assistance.
At last count, Flyht has a sales backlog of hardware and services valued at approximately $50M USD. (Note: this has actually been reported more recently as being closer to $30M USD now.)
Flyht has a client list of 80+ customers at the moment with somewhere in the vicinity of 2,700 AFIRS units installed to date. There are also some 200+ Tamdar/FlightLink installations with perhaps another 150 in the backlog.
Flyht has a number of important partners in the aviation industry, like Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, Bombardier, ATR, L-3Harris, Iridium, Inmarsat, ATP Casebank, Flight Data Services, Synoptic/NOAA...
Flyht has the ability to ramp up delivery to meet any demand.
Flyht is recognized by governing bodies around the world (FAA, EASA, CAAC, TCCA, ICAO, IATA, NTSB, ADCC).
Flyht is helping to set the standards that the aviation industry in the future will follow - regarding safety, economical viability and environmental issues - notably for real-time triggered data streaming (including the black box), flight tracking, global voice and data communication, aircraft health monitoring...
According to the recent AGM, and due to the fact that Flyht receives deposits before shipping hardware and does not extend itself very far when delivering services, Flyht does not appear to have any serious or sizable bad debts owed it.
Flyht has received support from both the Alberta provincial government and the Canadian federal government, and is presently receiving COVID-related financial assistance in both Canada and the U.S.
Flyht is not a fly-by-night company. It has been around for almost 20 years.
The product is well tested. AFIRS has been on board for more than 2,700,000 customer flights and for more than 4,000,000 flight hours.
Flyht has attracted an impressive board of directors considering its size, all of whom are enthusiastic about the company and product line and all of whom are currently active in its promotion and continued success.
(I could go on...)
So, what is Flyht worth?
The share price has fallen considerably since the COVID epidemic began – some 60%. (Note: $1.78 in January.)
Prior to that the share price was languishing well below its high back in 2014 when MH370 disappeared (the share price equivalent of $8 at that time).
The difference then to now has to do with shareholders seeing value in the future of the company, not flatly in the day-to-day profit or loss.
Should shareholders be concerned that the company will go under? Management thinks it won’t, and says so.
Since the company has more or less reinvented itself with new products for imminent release and a full pipeline, it is time to look at the share price from that old perspective again.
So, what will Flyht be worth?
- when worldwide flights return to pre-COVID levels
- when the sales backlog is installed and earning recurring revenue
- when Flyht gains further attention from worldwide weather data organizations
- when Flyht’s Next Gen products reach the rejuvenated post-COVID marketplace
- when we see what Flyht and its technology partners like ATP Casebank develop
- when more airlines choose Flyht products and services to improve their bottom line
- when OEM licensing deals with Boeing/Embraer or other airframers are successfully struck
- when the IATA recommendations for ADT and the Timely Access to FDR info are enforced
(I could go on...)