Good Natured Products Inc. V.GDNP

Catalysts for the stock ....

[FreddieMac]

It's been interesting to watch all of the things suggested here that were going to move the stock price, but which either failed to materialize or once they happened failed to move the stock.  And I'm not including Doggy's litany of predictions in any of those. 

My evolving view is that many of the things people are pointing at (Q3 financial report for example) are already generally priced-in, as people can do the math based on past quarters, plus their stated organic growth, plus the guidance they have given for the additive impact of acquisitions and new contracts.   

So the real question becomes: what has the market not yet priced in, either fully or at all ? 

A few thigns come to mind:

1.   Premature profitability.  This is possible but not likely, but the sort of thing that would surprise to the upside for the stock.

2.   A transformative acquisition.  The company has a good amount of cash on their balance sheet and they are skilled financial engineers, so a significant acquisition could vault the revenue (and EBITDA) to a much higher level, without any additional dilution.  That could be material.

3.   Some transformative big customer wins.  So this is in the organic growth category and an example is the $13 million contract with the US food company mentioned a while ago.  I say "some transformative big customer wins" because the effect of the single $13 million contract was minimal, so I would expect they need to put up a few of these to show the trendline and materially higher revenue results.

One final note:  we've all been watching higher oil prices and this is a cost negative for GDNP's legacy competition of petroleum-based packaging.   It's easier to switch to GDNP when the oil-based products are themselves not getting any cheaper becuase their input costs are rising with the price of oil.

[canon12345]

My thoughts on your post. 1 You ask what has the market not priced in? Well the stock was twice the price it is now, what was priced in then and what has occured after to drive the price down to current levels? 2 You are assuming that the market is somehow reflecting correctly all info available and that markets are reflective of actual value?  3 If you are sugeesting that somehow the

[FreddieMac]

So let me get this straight: When the price is high, you like it and feel it better reflects "actual value" (however you may define it), but when the price is low you feel it is not reflective of actual value. Yet in a separate sentence you argue that share price and actual value are not always the same.  But you only apply that logic to one share price (the low one) and not the

[diamondhands]

Broadly speaking I think his point is that the company has fundamentally advanced significantly relative to last year, and therefore if the company was priced fairly at any point between e.g. c$0.9 - 1.98  then it should be worth at least that amount now.  for a specific valuation you can just run your own model, but hey maybe I can build one for you and share it, but even some back

[FreddieMac]

Yes, fair point and at a high level I agree that the company is generating materially more revenue than say 9 months ago.  That and more clarity on positive momentum and revenue growth into 2022.   But the company has also created more dilution as well, with the $1.20 / share offering and the warrants that went with it, plus the dilution (upon conversion) of the latest debt round

[canon12345]

Hey Freddie I don't believe I personally attacked anyone on here and simply gave you my thoughts on your post. With most small tsxv Companies it is very difficult to determine a "correct value" for what it should be trading at as any type of NPV calculations means little when the focus is on growing Revenue not Net Income. Having said that, we all are trying to forecast where this

[FreddieMac]

Thanks for your post canon and your points are well made and well taken.   The picture is still a little fuzzy, but the beginnings of what could be a greater than $100 million revenue year in 2022 are starting to appear; I just hope that additional financings (which will be necessary) are not unduly dilutive, as that will impact the ultimate exit price per share.   The macro setup

[doggy123]

Paul is a very good ceo but one think for sure he can't promote a company....The only reason there is no pre 3 is because it was not a good one or something in the Q3 not good for shareholders...Every company release a pre Q especially when its a good one...One thing i noticed on every seminar he said i don't want to sound like a recorder well he is unfortunately....still believe big in

[diamondhands]

Doggy I just want to say that they already raised the money for the next acquisition 

[doggy123]

Paul need to wack up and stopped repeating his old seminar webcams. His last 5 plus 6 seminars shares dropped because nothing new is release to shareholders to buy instead they are selling.He mention on every siminars he doesn't want to sound like a old broken record. Well he not doing any good by repeating that times after times.At this discount price no insiders is buying.Probably buying

[RainMakerX]

You sound like an impatient child and it's obvious you're just looking for a quick profit. This company is making the right moves and Paul emphasizes those things very clearly. Do you really expect him to spit something out new every seminar even if no new developments have been made since? That's not a company I would want to be invested in. You have to understand good things take

[doggy123]

Well one thing for sure the release Q3 is before market probably mean good news if it was after market it would probably be  bad news...The good news will probably happen in the near future with a halt.

[RainMakerX]

Oh man, you are way too fixated on the small nuances and fluctuations. I have some advice, maybe don't look at the stock for a while. It will help ease your anxiety.

[doggy123]

Got to post something here once a while or it will become a funeral home....dead bullboard

[RoyKerr]

canadian retail microcap investors are allergic to PPs. they can tank stock for 6-12 months, even if the PP made the company stronger, or actually saved the company from bankruptcy. The NCU offering a couple of days ago is a good example. It was needed because the company has huge debt and covid monkey wrenched plans; can investors react with real anger and want people brought up on criminal

[RoyKerr]

i like how keynes described market prices: the stock market is like a beauty contest where you have to pick the woman you think the judges think is the prettiest.