RE: Correction: This should start some conversatio“OSK has a market cap of 5170 million and a 18 million oz resource = $287 per oz
& currently
GBB has a market cap of 53.7 million and ~2.5 million oz resource = $21.5 per oz.
So, assuming the 43-101 at least proves the primary block tonnage, using TRR valuation GBB should be ~ $2.50/share. Using the OSK valuation GBB could be $5.50/share.”
First of all the 2.5mm oz resource is not a resource. It’s a theoretical estimate based on certain assumptions on grade, thickness & area. It’s a very rough guess at best b/c it is not known how consistent the minerization is throughout that volume of material. Only a 43-101 will actually calculate a true resource. If it’s not a 43-101 it doesn’t count.
And there is no point in using an Osisko valuation for 2 reasons.
1) Osisko is done diluting their shareholders to drill up their deposits as all the funds needed to do so are in their bank account, unlike GBB which needs many more future financings if they are to get to the primarily 2P reserves category Osisko has at their Malartic deposit instead of the inferred that Granada will have after Phase 3 drilling. Once that mine is up and running Osisko will have all the $ they need to futher drill up Harmond Reef as well, so no more dilution for them.
So the future dilution from those GBB financings will somewhat offset the higher value/oz from the increased Au category as GBB would not have anywhere near the same # of shares they currently have. And they already have 158 mm shares outstanding & 188 mm shares (diluted). You seem to be using 2.5 mm oz Au and the 130 mm shares that Stockhouse has on its site which is always wrong (they never update it after a financing) to get your GBB target of $2.50.
2) The second point is that Osisko is almost a producer. And producers always are valued much more than non-producers. Even if they have a similar sized and type of deposit within the same country (same political risk). This is due to financial risks that are removed from the financing of the mine construction and no project over-runs needing more financings to complete the mine.