Altus ReportSince Altus is the gold standard and reports only to lenders, and not developers, Altus did not give any values to many significant items, so Altus can remain as the most conservative authoritive entity on profits and discounted values.
The many items that offer much more value to Greenbriar that Altus did not report or have not currently updated are:
1) Lumber prices were factored at US $1,700 per 1000; currently its US $594 per 1000
2) Altus added a $11 million cost contingency deduction.
3) Altus made no price sales projection on the upside. This leaves major upside as the entry level market in California is chronically short inventory of 2.4 million units and will remain so for decades with the difficulting of building entry level housing in a permit challenged and price challenged market.
8-10% annual price sales escalation can easily be factored.
4) Altus did not look into any values attributable to USDA loans, grants, HUD grants, DRE grants and many other Uncle Sam derived benefits to build entry level housing for a military, ag worker, retirees area and folks who can only afford living in an Exurb, which is the bulls-eye for the majority of these programs.
5) Altus did not look at any valuation regarding build to rent and the yield - CAP rate on a rental valuation
These are some of the few examples how at $173.9 Million in profit, we are still long and far away from getting the squeel out of the pig. (no pun intended Shneps)
All the best