Arabs turning to coal
ENERGY: POWER PLANTS
Skyward oil stokes a coal-fired future
NEIL REYNOLDS
July 18, 2008
OTTAWA-- Der Spiegel, the German newsmagazine, explained earlier this monthwhy the Persian Gulf states are switching to coal. "[They] may besitting atop massive oil reserves," the magazine said. "But with pricesfor crude skyrocketing, it makes more sense to sell it than to use it.Instead, the Gulf states are turning to coal for their own energy needs- to the detriment of the climate." And these states are not alone."Demand for coal plants," the magazine says, "is growing rapidly acrossthe globe."
Abu Dhabi (largest of the seven UAE emirates) has announced that itwill switch to coal-fired power plants. Dubai (the second largest) isalready building four of them - with a combined output of 4,000megawatts - as a first-phase investment in coal. Apart from the UnitedArab Emirates, Oman (widely regarded as "the next Dubai") has signed acontract with South Korea for the construction of several coal-firedplants. Beyond the Gulf, Egypt proposes to build its first coal-firedplant on the shores of the Red Sea. Russia has announced plans to buildmore than 30 coal-fired plants by 2011.
As almost everyone now knows, China connects a new coal-fired plantto its electrical grid every 10 days - and intends to keep doing so forseveral years. Less known is China's decision to construct a massivecoal-fired plant in Inner Mongolia that will convert the region's vastcoal reserves into oil. With 10,000 people now engaged in theconstruction, the plant will be completed by the end of the year. Thecoal-to-liquid process used by this plant will consume twice as muchcoal and produce twice the CO{-2} emissions as the simple burning ofcoal in a conventional power plant.
The Kyoto Protocol, incidentally, classifies the Gulf states asdeveloping countries - meaning that they are under no obligation, oilrevenues notwithstanding, to reduce CO{-2} emissions. They have optedfor coal for a single compelling reason: cost. They can produce amegawatt-hour of electricity using Australian coal, Der Spiegelcalculates, for $17.49 (U.S.). Using natural gas, the cost rises to$41.34. Using oil, the cost rises further to $79.50. At the same time,they can sell their oil on the global market for something approaching(or occasionally exceeding) $140 a barrel.
One of the ironic differences between Germany and the Gulf states,Der Spiegel observes, is the absence of solar energy investment "in thesun-baked Gulf states." Germany produced 1,300 megawatts from solarinstallations in 2007; the Gulf states combined produced 36 megawatts.As impressive as its commitment to solar power appears, though, Germanyhas its work cut out. It has promised to generate most of itselectricity by renewable energies (largely wind and solar) by 2020 -when it will phase out its nuclear power. Germany has thus opted forthe world's most expensive electrical power even as other countriessimultaneously opt for the cheapest.
For an assessment of Germany's chances, check outCanadianEnergyIssues.com, the website of Steve Aplin, the perceptiveOttawa-based energy and environment consultant. "Germany must bring atleast 12,000 megawatts of base-load electricity into service by 2020,the year in which the nuclear phase-out will begin," Mr. Aplin writes."German politicians are beginning to realize the difficulty, if not theimpossibility, of plugging the gap left by the departure of nuclear."
It appears that German environmentalists are making it harder forthe country to reach its aggressive objective - and are driving up thecountry's CO{-2} emissions, too. Some German Greens are blockingconstruction of power lines needed to connect wind power to the grid ina bid to prevent despoiling of the countryside. Mr. Aplin notes thatemissions from German power generation rose by 12 million tonnesbetween 2005 and 2007. "In their zeal to admonish the rest of theworld," he says, "German Greens are making sure that their ownemissions will continue to rise."
Other German Greens are championing - you are ready for this, right?- coal. "The more strident of the anti-nuclear politicians in Germanyare now advocating new coal and gas plants to ward off a certainelectricity supply crisis," Mr. Aplin says. "Why is coal in this mix?It is cheap and domestically available."
Cheap, reliable power apparently still has its practical uses - andits political appeal. The Germans are now operating a showcase40-megawatt solar power plant near Leipzig (which, in its experimentalstartup phase, will operate as a 24-megawatt plant). But 40 megawattsare a long way from 12,000 megawatts. "Hence," Mr. Aplin says, "the newenthusiasm [in Germany] for coal and gas."
The bizarre debate still rages on here and there in the developedcountries. What limits on carbon emissions must be imposed? What taxeslevied? Two days ago, though, Germany's Finance Ministry issued aremarkably candid public statement. It conceded that Europe's proposalsfor reductions in greenhouse gases - without the participation of allmajor contributors worldwide - will be pointless.
Precisely.