Gold Goose, as promised !
Towards the end of 2011 when the world was shouting “US going into a double dip recession !”, “Europe falling off the Cliff! ” , “Europe to break up !” and “ China to Hard Crash ! “ I declared indignantly that it was all “RUBBISH !”. I went on to predict that in fact that by the end of the 4th quarter in 2012 that US will actually grow between 3% to 3.5% , that Europe will not fall off the cliff nor break up but in fact would not go into a major recession but have a very small growth rate and that China was not crashing but was a purposely well managed cooling off by the Govt. and that China would actually have another 20 to 30 years of growing prosperity ahead (if not sabotaged that is).
I found it very hard getting my point across not only on this Board (Ketll would testify to that) but also in my social and professional scene. Why wouldn’t I ?. After all I was going against Pulitzer prize winning economists not to mention the clown Nouriel Roubini (it was only a fluke that he got the timing of the crash right but his thesis and basis for it was all wrong and that’s why he got it all wrong later with continuous predictions of double dip quartet after quarter....….and despite non of these predictions coming true he kept getting non-stop media coverage) also the incompetent Christine Laggard of the IMF which kept (until today) coming out with negative and fear mongering forecasts…..she should just go back to being the incompetent Finance Minister of France IMHO.
But what do you know ? I was right on all fronts. How did I do it ? I always ignore all the screaming headlines and mainstream media and take a sit back and look at all the underlying data objectively. (Always remember that screaming headlines and mainstream media…..in fact most media…..all have their own agendas at hand.)
That’s why I refer to the 2008 crash as not the Great Recession but the Great Manipulation. In the light of that I take my hat off to the brilliant woman Angela Merkel…she stood up and refused to give in to the manipulators and thus their plan failed and Europe survived.
So now let me apply this same approach to Stans.
But first, let me address a few small issues :
CHINVEST –
I like the things you say and you are most of the time right when looking at the things from a trader’s perspective. But that is exactly the problem, as a Trader you did not do DD as to the fundamentals of the company and thus led to your unfounded bashing earlier of the Russians as though they were also Kyrgs.
To get things clear, the Kyrgs are not Russians in race and are actually more closer to the Mongolian race and now don’t go getting mixed up that they are closer to the Chinese as the Mongolians are a different race to the Chinese (who themselves have many other races that form what we know as Chinese).
If you had done your DD you would have known that the Russians were our (Stans‘s) allies from the very beginning. (You will see why in a short while). So tell me how do you think our Russian friends and not to mention our own management, among who are Russians, feel when they see bashing of them like that ? (As David has said they also read our BB).
Also the same goes for the Kyrg’s when we call them goat herders…etc….because as you will see later as well, why I think it’s just a small handful who are the culprits who are manipulating and there are those who want to do the right thing but are being handcuffed by fear…..so how does it help motivate those Kyrgs who want to do the right thing when they read this kind of bashing from Stans shareholders themselves?.
So let’s put this approach to Stans :
1. THE RUSSIAN FACTOR
Due to production of REE being practically non-existent outside China for the past 30 years the expertise for deciphering the metallurgy for separation of the oxides practically is non-existent as well . Thus it was a great coup when Stans was able to tie-up a working relationship with VNIIHT…..(which is the Russian equivalent to Nasa)………one of the only ones who still had the said expertise.
This was clear that the powers that be in Russia were very friendly with Stans as they would never had allowed VNIIHT to work with just any party outside Russia.
BK had also said that the powers that be in Russia have a strong desire to want to see Stans succeed.
BK has also reported in the early days that Stans’ plan was to first start operating the Kyrg mine than will expand to include Russian assets/mines (which was also acceptable to the powers that be in Russia). That’s why R. Irwin was not wrong when he said in his interview that this is not a Plan ‘B’ but a Plan ‘A’ all along and its just being moved forward due to the delay in Kyrg.
About 2 years ago, Putin announced that he was allocating funds worth US$1 to US$2 Billion (if I’m not mistaken) for the development of REE supplies.
That’s why it brought a big smile to my face when I read that the person from Rusnano was made a Stans director. Rusnano is a state investment fund whose Chairman of the Executive board is Anatoly Chubais. Chubais was formerly the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minster of Finance of Russia.
So from the above you can see why the Russians have been our ally all the while and why it irritates me to see them being bashed on this board. This also leads to my next theory that it is not the Chinese govt that’s behind our problems cause if it was, it would have been easier to settle with the Russians as our friends and their relations with China.
2. THE CHINA FACTOR
In the expose video done by Robert Mckay it was said that there was the claim by the Chinese company that they could ‘hijack’ Stans license for about $1.5 Million and that the revocation would be able to complete by the 3rd quarter of last year. The Chinese company was trying to raise $50 Million from western investors to then operate the mine. My question here is if the Chinese govt was really behind this then why would they be offering it to Western investors and to raise a paltry sum of only $50 Million.? Even though this Chinese company had claimed that the powerful govt. was behind them, everyone who has dealt with that part of the world knows that businessmen are always dropping names and trying to create the impression that they are very powerfully connected.
So could this just be one crooked company buying of a small number of corrupted officials? If we look back we see that all our attacks and obstacles have come from only one source and that’s the Prosecutor General’s office…..the stop work orders…..the court cases not to mention the ridiculous case of suing their own agency….communication injunction…….and the incredible case requiring the lifting of statute of limitations.
Let’s look at it…..this prosecutor was hired to replace the previous prosecutor (he was accused of not going far enough in his actions) in 2011/12, I think, by the President which is just before our problems began. She first charged the licenses’ committee members of the State Geology Agency with criminal corruption (which I read as trying to instill fear in them) which I believe all were found not guilty and the cases being baseless.
She then began her attack on Stans with all her legal manoeuvring (Stans has never had been attacked by the people, on contrary, has only received great support from the villagers).
The SGA tried to do the right thing but she had already instilled fear in them. If I’m not mistaken a post had quoted a report after the arbitration award saying that the SGA members pleaded that it was not their fault as they were only following orders from the prosecutor’s office.
She always managed to get ridiculous decisions in the district court that were always overturned on appeal in the City court.
In the latest case ,the ridiculous of which involved suing their own SGA and requiring the lifting of the Statute of Limitations, it should have been impossible. With the odds against them, she then kept the case in limbo with no end in sight as to the actual hearing all along maintaining the injunction to work (I guess here the plan was to hope Stans just ran out of money).
However, when the arbitration took place she rushed the hearing and verdict just in time for the arbitration hearing hoping it would bolster them but backfired and did the opposite instead.
She was able to get the verdict which included the lifting of the statutes by the sheer action of the SGA of not really defending their case (basically meaning with not much objection from the SGA) which I believe the fear factor had a lot to do with the SGA’s action which I guess was also the reason the appeal failed.
Now who do you think is advising the govt all these nonsense of the arbitration being not binding and no jurisdiction….etc….??
If I’m not mistaken, some time back someone posted an article which questioned the accumulation of wealth by the prosecutor general’s family……and the recent post which indicates that only the AR faction is behind all these….
From this big picture, IMHO, I think the 1.5 million mentioned earlier had been paid out and now these few culprits have their back against the wall trying to deliver……….……..and because it involves a few people who are now fighting for their survival, is the reason it is harder to overcome as opposed to govts’ action that could be negotiated away.
Thus, IMHO, should Stans work out a JV with Russia, it would mean that Stans will not fade away and these guys will lose the battle in the end as they do not have any legal basis to stand on short of nationalization (which they then might as well hang a noose around themselves).
However, this is going to take a while and only the long term investor type longs will be rewarded and unfortunately the short term traders will be disappointed (though they could make the odd 50% or so).
All the above IMHO.
3. Global Macro Factors
However, my main concern here is not Kyrgystan as I believe it would be sorted out but my main concern is the regional environment here involving Ukraine and Russia and what is being planned against Russia. Once again people would be shocked here when I say Russia is the actual victim and target of ‘a greater plan’…….…….once again I say……. …Ignore all the screaming headlines and mainstream media and look at the underlying factors………hint…..…..within an hour of shooting down the passenger plane they have ‘proof’ that Russia was responsible along with what weapon was used (BUKs) and audio recordings ?.......give me a break…….
I could write a whole thesis on all that has been transpiring in the world for the past 100 years and would be quite shocking when it would pan out to be a complete different picture than what we have been brainwashed to believe all these years…………..….by just simply ignoring the screaming headlines and looking at the underlying data…………….…(even the simple belief that Kettl and the rest of the world think about the connection of China and the Vietnam war)….……..
I wont go into all these in case I be accused of being a lunatic but all I would do is say that all these (underlying data of the actual historical events) can be found in documentaries produced and available on the History Chanell………..….all these documentaries are not opinion based but based on actual documents that they reveal along with actual testimonies of the various vital people involved.
Now finally, how can I not end without touching on my good friend Bago?
4. BAGO
2 days before the court case verdict was announced he was talking up Stans and betting as to how it would be going up by 30 Aug……making us all feel he is on our side…..then just 2 days later when the verdict is announced he wastes no time in doing a complete U-turn and start creating all the negative fear in it……..so by now you should all know his tactics and trust him at you own risk!!
Anyway, all the above is just my honest opinion and so please don’t rely on it as your basis for investing but do your own DD.
Cheers All,
Simon