RE:Share Count - Dilution - Margins - DrillingI have a much simpler way to look at ICG.
- First, I would use the OS = to work out the Market Cap, then subsequently ignore the OS altogether. The Mkt Cap is a more important parameter.
Currently, this is what we have: Mkt Cap = 431Ms x $0.72/s = $316M (All numbers came from Google Finance ICG, including the Mkt Cap).
- Next, Project the Mkt Cap in 3 months (or by the end of 2016) when ICG is to come up with a new resource estimate.
Currently we have:
>>Lamaque South: 1.67Moz (5gpt cut-off); 2.18 Moz (3gpt cut-off) with a very low estimate for #4 Plug (Cormark projected a 50% increase in RE (5gpt cut-off yields 2.5Moz, 3gpt cut-off yields 3.28Moz...Note:This is getting close to 4Moz, without taking into account the potential increase in the #4 Plug) ;
>>Sigma/Lamaque: 2.44 Moz (Historic, which is totally ignored in this discussion).
The new resource estimate, with the new results, in 3-6 months would come up with over 4Moz for Lamaque South (Triangle et al).
4 Moz level is my bold guess, and my favourite since it can be compared with PRB for which G paid $526M without an on-site mill and on-site infrastructure (value $100M). So, the market value for ICG would be of the order 526 +100 = $626M.
The math: $626M/$316M = 2. Hence, 2 x 0.72 = $1.4/s. A 2x in 3-6 months would be good enough?
If ICG decides to finance the mine using the equity route in a big way, say ~100Ms @ $1/s level. Or, ICG could take on a partner who would provide the cash for a stake in the company, say a 40/60 venture with ICG as the operator), then we will need to do a new math, but ICG, in its path toward production with some respectable profit, would be more valuable... and that would be relected in the SP, which would be expected to be more than $1.4/s.
So there my bold guess, no guarantee what-so-ever, lol.
GH