RE:Target date: 2030 Here is another article that shows LFP to dominate global lithium-ion market by 2030:
https://www.energy-storage.news/lfp-to-dominate-3twh-global-lithium-ion-battery-market-by-2030/
If one were to play family feud in the year 1999, and the question was "What do you look for in a car", the answers would look something like:
Cost : 52
MPG : 37
Looks/Style : 25
Quality : 22
0-60 : 17
Days one can drive on one tank/Range : 6
EV's are either on par with, or dominate in all of these categories, except Range. So let's look at Range. In the year 1999 Range meant how many days can one drive before filling-up. On this aspect of "Range" EV's dominate as one charges at home.However, in 1999 range has virtually no consequence for most drivers on long hauls, since after 4 or 5 hours one has stop anyway, and it only takes 5 minutes to fill up.
Range with EV's Range is something else entirely though, because it takes 30 minutes to charge, and EV charging stations are not easy to find. However, in the long-term this goes away. Say in 8 to 12 years, there will be 600Kw Charging stations along every highway where one can charge 30 miles in a minute (e.g. like CATL's new Kirin battery). When this happens, we are back to 1999 where nobody cares about Range.
What does all this mean? Similar to 1999, very few people after 8 years or so will pay for range. The above article (and others) states the date LFP will take over is 4 years (2028), and will dominate the market in 6 years (2030).
So the problem with this stock is that in the short term (next two years) Cobalt prices will remain low. In the long-term, LFP will dominate much like China with 95% LFP. So it is only in the medium-term (say 2025-2028) where JRV can make money. However, this could dissipate pretty quickly.
So, if you own Jervois now, and got in above 20 cents, you might as well just wait it out, and try to sell in say 2025-2026. If you are looking for a short term spike, buying now and riding to say .15 to .25 cents seems like a calculated risk. However, be careful. This is a dangerous play, and not a long term play.
-Sheldon